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On our own? The Icelandic business cycle in an international context

  • Bjarni G. Einarsson
  • Gudjón Emilsson
  • Svava J. Haraldsdóttir
  • Thórarinn G. Pétursson
  • Rósa B. Sveinsdóttir

This paper analyses the properties of the Icelandic business cycle and whether it is synchronised with the business cycles of other developed countries. We start by identifying business cycle turning points and the average amplitude and duration of expansionary and contractionary periods in Iceland. We then extract the cyclical component of a large set of economic variables to document key stylised facts of the Icelandic business cycle. The resulting regularities of the domestic business cycle are also compared to business cycle regularities of other developed countries. Finally, we attempt to identify underlying structural shocks through long-run identification restrictions on a vector autoregressive (VAR) representation of the data, and look at the interconnection of these underlying shocks in Iceland and other developed countries. Our results suggest that although the characteristics of the domestic business cycle are in some aspects similar to business cycles in other developed countries, there are some important differences. Furthermore, our results indicate that the domestic business cycle is to a large extent asymmetric to the business cycle of other developed countries. These findings should be of importance for policymakers, and serve as a useful benchmark for modelling the Icelandic economy. The results should also serve as an important input for the analysis of the appropriate monetary and exchange rate regime for Iceland.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland in its series Economics with number wp63.

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Date of creation: Mar 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ice:wpaper:wp63
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  1. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Gudjón Emilsson & Svava J. Haraldsdóttir & Ólafur Ö. Klemensson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson & Rósa B. Sveinsdóttir, 2013. "The production and export structure of the Icelandic economy. An international comparison," Economics wp60, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  2. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  3. Farrant, Katie & Peersman, Gert, 2006. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber or a Source of Shocks? New Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 939-961, June.
  4. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  7. Francis Breedon & Thórarinn G. Pétursson & Andrew K. Rose, 2011. "Exchange Rate Policy in Small Rich Economies," Economics wp53, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  8. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, January.
  9. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  10. Michael Funke, 2000. "Macroeconomic Shocks in Euroland vs. the UK: Supply, Demand, or Nominal?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 37, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  11. Sharon McCaw, 2007. "Stylised facts about New Zealand business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  12. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "A sticky-price manifesto," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
  13. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Revisiting the Stylised Facts," Working Papers 664, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  14. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, January.
  15. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Marianne Baxter, 1995. "International Trade and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries; Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Chadha, Bankim & Prasad, Eswar, 1994. "Are prices countercyclical? Evidence from the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 239-257, October.
  20. Agresti, Anna Maria & Mojon, Benoît, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 0095, European Central Bank.
  21. repec:van:wpaper:0617 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864 Elsevier.
  23. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
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