Knowing the Cycle
Policy makers are primarily interested in fluctuations in the level of activity - the classical cycle. Academics have in recent times focused their efforts on studying fluctuations and co-movement in aggregate variables that have been rendered stationary after some appropriate transformation. That is academics focus on the growth cycle. One reason for this shift in focus was the impression among academics that Burns and Mitchell's work lacked the precision required in modern macroeconomics. In this paper we show that pattern recognition algorithms which emulate Burns and Mitchell's approach to the cycle can be constructed and used to collect precise information on the classical cycle. The information so marshaled comprises the duration, amplitude, and cumulative movements of output within business cycle phases. We show that this information can be used to assess a range of business cycle models that have been proposed in the literature.
|Date of creation:||May 1999|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 Australia|
Phone: +61 3 8344 2100
Fax: +61 3 8344 2111
Web page: http://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sichel, Daniel E, 1994.
"Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-277, July.
- Daniel E. Sichel, 1992. "Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Garey Ramey & Joel Watson, 1997. "Contractual Fragility, Job Destruction, and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(3), pages 873-911.
- King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1994. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-438, April.
- King, R.G. & Plosser, C.I., 1989. "Real Business Cycles And The Test Of The Adelmans," RCER Working Papers 204, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Real Business Cycles and the Test of the Adelmans," NBER Working Papers 3160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 2000. "Endogenous Business Cycles and the Dynamics of Output, Hours, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1136-1159, December.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 1998. "Endogenous business cycles and the dynamics of output, hours, and consumption," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 1999. "Endogenous business cycles and the dynamics of output, hours, and consumption," Departmental Working Papers 199915, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie, 1999. "Endogenous Business Cycles and the Dynamics of Output, Hours, and Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 2315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
- Simkins, Scott P., 1994. "Do real business cycle models really exhibit business cycle behavior?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 381-404, April.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 696-715, November.
- Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Bart Turtelboom & Peter Isard & Eswar S Prasad, 1998. "Multimod Mark III; The Core Dynamic and Steady State Model," IMF Occasional Papers 164, International Monetary Fund.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1997. "Policy, Theory, and the Cycle," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 19-33, Autumn.
- Fisher, Lance A & Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham M, 1996. "Australian Business Cycle Facts," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(67), pages 300-320, December.
- Kevin Huang & Z. Liu, "undated". "Staggered contracts and business cycle persistence," Working Papers 2000-08, Utah State University, Department of Economics.
- Huang, K.X. & Liu, Z., 1999. "Staggered Contracts and Business Cycle Persistence," Papers 305, Minnesota - Center for Economic Research.
- Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 1998. "Staggered contracts and business cycle persistence," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 1998. "Staggered Contracts and Business Cycle Persistence," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 105, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- Harding, Don, 1997. "The Definition, Dating and Duration of Cycles," MPRA Paper 3357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kim, Kunhong & Buckle, R A & Hall, V B, 1994. "Key Features of New Zealand Business Cycles," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(208), pages 56-73, March.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
- Kiley, Michael T, 2002. "Partial Adjustment and Staggered Price Setting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 283-298, May.
- Gordon, Stephen & St-Amour, Pascal, 1997. "Asset Prices with Contingent Preferences," Cahiers de recherche 9712, Université Laval - Département d'économique, revised 08 Jun 1998.
- Peter Temin, 1998. "Causes of American business cycles: an essay in economic historiography," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 37-64.
- Collard, Fabrice, 1998. "Spectral and persistence properties of cyclical growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 463-488, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp1999n12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Abbey Treloar)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.