Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models
The ability of Markov-switching (MS) autoregressive models to replicate selected classical business-cycle features found in US post-war consumption, investment and output is compared to that of linear models. Univariate MS models appear to offer more dynamically parsimonious representations, but generally are unable to reproduce features missed by linear models. In the multivariate models, some cointegration restrictions were found to have a crucial impact, and the ability of models that imposed cointegration to reproduce business cycle features was enhanced by Markov-switching
|Date of creation:||01 Jan 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pagan, Adrian, 1997. "Policy, Theory, and the Cycle," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 19-33, Autumn.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1994.
"Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
4643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sichel, D.E., 1988.
"Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look,"
85, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997.
"Cointegration and long-horizon forecasting,"
97-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Francis X. Diebold & Peter F. Christoffersen, 1997. "Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 97/61, International Monetary Fund.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting," NBER Technical Working Papers 0217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
- Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Towards an Understanding of Some Business Cycle Characteristics," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 30(1), pages 1-15.
- Hess, Gregory D & Iwata, Shigeru, 1997. "Measuring and Comparing Business-Cycle Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 432-44, October.
- Watson, Mark W, 1994.
"Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 24-46, March.
- Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Business Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 4005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Sensier, Marianne, 2000. "A Disaggregated Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle in UK Manufacturing," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(4), pages 442-60, Special I.
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1989.
"Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- King, R.G. & Plosser, C.I., 1989. "Real Business Cycles And The Test Of The Adelmans," RCER Working Papers 204, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Real Business Cycles and the Test of the Adelmans," NBER Working Papers 3160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ravn, Morten O. & Sola, Martin, 1995. "Stylized facts and regime changes: Are prices procyclical?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 497-526, December.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Asymmetries in the Cyclical Behaviour of UK Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1303-23, November.
- Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995.
"Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1998. "A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C47-C75.
- Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-93, Sept.-Oct.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Monica Birds)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.