IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/specre/v7y2004i1p1-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Classical and modern business cycle measurement: The European case

Author

Listed:
  • Hans-Martin Krolzig

    ()

  • Juan Toro

    ()

Abstract

This paper intends to harmonize two different approaches employed in the analysis of business cycles and, in doing so, it retrieves the stylized facts of the business cycle in Europe. We start with the ‘classical’ approach proposed in Burns and Mitchell (1946) of dating and analyzing the business cycle. The stylized facts retrieved are commented and compared to those obtained by Harding and Pagan (2002) for the U.S.. Two conclusions can be extracted from the results: a) though the turning points obtained for individual countries seem to cluster and would suggest the idea of a common cycle, there are relevant differences in the stylized facts characterizing the business cycle in the individual European economies under analysis; b) moreover, we find relevant differences in the business cycle stylized facts of the European countries and the U.S., mostly in terms of the duration, the amplitude of the cycle and the shape of the recovery. We then adopt the ‘modern’ alternative: the Markov-switching vector autoregression (MS-VAR). The model’s regime probabilities provide an optimal statistical inference of the turning point of the European business cycle. For assessing the capacity of the parametric approach to generate the stylized facts of the classical cycle in Europe, the stylized facts of the original data are compared to those of simulated data. Contrary to the results reported by Harding and Pagan (2002) , we show that the MS-VAR model is a good candidate to be used as an statistical instrument to improve the understanding of the business cycle. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "Classical and modern business cycle measurement: The European case," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:specre:v:7:y:2004:i:1:p:1-21
    DOI: 10.1007/s10108-004-0088-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10108-004-0088-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
    3. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 224-236, April.
    5. Pagan, Adrian, 1997. "Policy, Theory, and the Cycle," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 19-33, Autumn.
    6. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1951. "What Happens During Business Cycles: A Progress Report," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc51-1, April.
    7. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-277, July.
    8. Gregory D. Hess & Shigeru Iwata, 1995. "Measuring business cycle features," Research Working Paper 95-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    9. Hess, Gregory D & Iwata, Shigeru, 1997. "Measuring and Comparing Business-Cycle Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 432-444, October.
    10. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, April.
    11. Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Towards an Understanding of Some Business Cycle Characteristics," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 30(1), pages 1-15.
    12. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters,in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    14. Krozlig, H.M., 1997. "International Business Cycles: Regime Shifts in the Stochastic Process of Economic Growth," Economics Series Working Papers 99194, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Phillips, Kerk L., 1991. "A two-country model of stochastic output with changes in regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 121-142, August.
    16. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    17. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 1997. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-198, March-Apr.
    19. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    20. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan, 2006. "Detection of the Industrial Business Cycle using SETAR Models," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 353-371.
    2. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2008. "Do European business cycles look like one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2165-2190, July.
    3. Pilar Bengoechea & Gabriel Pérez Quirós, 2004. "A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 215, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Marie Adanero-Donderis & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d'accélération pour l'économie française," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 95-114.
    5. Brüggemann, Ralf & Riedel, Jana, 2011. "Nonlinear interest rate reaction functions for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1174-1185, May.
    6. Bessec Marie & Bouabdallah Othman, 2005. "What Causes The Forecasting Failure of Markov-Switching Models? A Monte Carlo Study," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-24, June.
    7. Sumru Altug & Bilin Neyapti & Mustafa Emin, 2012. "Institutions and Business Cycles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 347-366, December.
    8. Emanuel Mönch & Harald Uhlig, 2003. "Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-023, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany, revised Apr 2005.
    9. Aka, B.F., 2004. "Do WAEMU Countries Exhibit a Regional Business Cycle?. A Simulated Markov Switching Model for a Western Africa area," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(4).
    10. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Real-time detection of the business cycle using SETAR models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00185372, HAL.
    11. Jacques Anas & Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2008. "A System For Dating And Detecting Turning Points In The Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 549-577, September.
    12. Sumru Altug & Melike Bildirici, 2012. "Business Cycles in Developed and Emerging Economies: Evidence from a Univariate Markov Switching Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 4-38, November.
    13. Eric Girardin, 2004. "Regime-Dependent Synchronization of Growth Cycles between Japan and East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(3), pages 147-176.
    14. Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Stylized facts of business cycles in a transition economy in time and frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2163-2173.
    15. Carlo Altavilla, 2004. "Do EMU Members Share the Same Business Cycle?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 869-896, December.
    16. Sumru Altug & Melike Bildirici, 2012. "Business Cycles in Developed and Emerging Economies: Evidence from a Univariate Markov Switching Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(6), pages 4-38, November.
    17. Adanero-Donderis , M. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2007. "Deux indicateurs probabilistes de retournement cyclique pour l’économie française," Working papers 187, Banque de France.
    18. Michael Artis, 2002. "Dating the Business Cycle in Britain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 182(1), pages 90-95, October.
    19. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Lorena Saiz & Universidad de Murcia, 2006. "Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 175, Society for Computational Economics.
    20. AKA, Bédia F., 2009. "Business Cycle And Sectoral Fluctuations: A Nonlinear Model For Côte D’Ivoire," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1), pages 111-126.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International business cycles; European Union; Markov switching; Structural breaks; Time series analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:specre:v:7:y:2004:i:1:p:1-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.