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Key Features of New Zealand Business Cycles

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  • KUNHONG KIM
  • A. BUCKLE
  • V. B. HALL

Abstract

By international standards, New Zealand's recent business cycle fluctuations have been exceptionally volatile. Fluctuations in central government and private fixed investment expenditure, the real net exports share, the terms of trade and interest rates have also been particularly volatile. Many bivariate relationships change markedly over time, but ‘real variable regularity’ is confirmed. Fluctuations in government purchases have been acyclical. The real net exports share has been countercyclical overall, but pro‐cyclical most recently. Domestic price fluctuations have been basically countercyclical. The scale of changes over the past decade continues to present difficulties for establishing credible financial and open economy regularities.

Suggested Citation

  • Kunhong Kim & A. Buckle & V. B. Hall, 1994. "Key Features of New Zealand Business Cycles," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(208), pages 56-72, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:70:y:1994:i:208:p:56-72
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1994.tb01825.x
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    Cited by:

    1. J. J. Reeves & C. A. Blyth & C. M. Triggs & J. P. Small, "undated". "The Hodrick-Prescott Filter, a Generalisation, and a New Procedure for Extracting an Empirical Cycle from a Series," Reports 9602, University of Auckland, Department of Economics.
    2. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "Thirty years of inflation targeting in New Zealand: The origins, evolution and influence of a monetary policy innovation," Working Paper Series 8086, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    3. Sharon McCaw, 2007. "Stylised facts about New Zealand business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Milan Christian de Wet, 2021. "Modelling the Australasian Financial Cycle: A Markov-Regime Switching Approach," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 14(1), pages 69-79, June.
    5. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2008. "Forecasting Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model for Singapore," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0802, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    6. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    7. Viv B. Hall & Peter Thomson, 2021. "Does Hamilton’s OLS Regression Provide a “better alternative” to the Hodrick-Prescott Filter? A New Zealand Business Cycle Perspective," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 151-183, November.
    8. Viv B. Hall & Peter Thomson, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis:evidence from New Zealand's small open economy," CAMA Working Papers 2022-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    10. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2009. "Analyzing and forecasting business cycles in a small open economy: A dynamic factor model for Singapore," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2009(1), pages 19-41.
    11. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2007. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(2), pages 167-191, June.
    12. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2016. "Recessions and recoveries in New Zealand's post-Second World War business cycles," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 261-280, September.
    13. McKelvie, S. & Hall, Viv B., 2012. "Stylised facts for New Zealand business cycles: A post-1987 perspective," Working Paper Series 18698, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    14. Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2002. "Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/08, New Zealand Treasury.
    15. Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Heather Kirkham & Nathan McLellan & Jared Sharma, 2002. "A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/26, New Zealand Treasury.
    16. Nijkamp, Peter & Poot, Jacques, 1993. "Endogenous Technological Change, Innovation Diffusion and Transitional Dynamics in a Nonlinear Growth Model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(61), pages 191-213, December.
    17. Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 9473, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    18. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Knowing the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    19. Tawadros, George B., 2011. "The stylised facts of Australia's business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 549-556.
    20. Buckle, Robert A. & Kim, Kunhong & Kirkham, Heather & McLellan, Nathan & Sharma, Jarad, 2007. "A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 990-1017, November.
    21. Felicity C Barker & Robert A Buckle & Robert W St Clair, 2008. "Roles of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 08/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    22. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "Thirty years of inflation targeting in New Zealand: The origins, evolution and influence of a monetary policy innovation," Working Paper Series 20927, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    23. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Hall, Viv & Thomson, Peter & McKelvie, Stuart, 2015. "On trend robustness and end-point issues for New Zealand’s stylised business cycle facts," Working Paper Series 3761, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    25. Kim, Kunhong & Hall, Viv B. & Buckle, Robert A., 2006. "Consumption-smoothing in a small, cyclically volatile open economy: Evidence from New Zealand," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1277-1295, December.

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