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Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data

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Abstract

This paper fits hidden Markov switching models to New Zealand GDP data. A primary objective is to better understand the utility of these methods for modelling growth and volatility regimes present in the New Zealand data and their interaction. Properties of the models are developed together with a description of the estimation methods, including use of the Expectation Maximisation (EM) algorithm. The models are fitted to New Zealand GDP and production sector growth rates to analyse changes in their mean and volatility over time. The paper discusses applications of the methodology to identifying changes in growth performances, and examines the timing of growth and volatility regime switching between production sectors. Conclusions to emerge are that, in contrast to the 1980s, New Zealand GDP growth experienced an unusually long period of time in high growth and low volatility regimes during the 1990s. The paper evaluates sector contributions to this 1990s experience and discusses directions for further development.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2002. "Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/08, New Zealand Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:02/08
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    File URL: https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2007-10/twp02-08.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro R. Pena Sanchez, 2004. "El ciclo económico en Uruguay - Un modelo de Switching Regimes," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 111, Econometric Society.
    2. Melleny Black & Melody Guy & Nathan McLellan, 2003. "Productivity in New Zealand 1988 to 2002," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 119-150.
    3. Ramirez-Rondán Nelson, 2007. "Nonlinear Volatility Effects on Growth in Developing Economies," Working Papers 2007-016, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    4. Iris Claus & Grant Scobie, 2002. "Saving in New Zealand: Measurement and Trends," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2007. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(2), pages 167-191, June.
    6. Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2014. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in New Zealand," MPRA Paper 58763, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hidden Markov models; regime switching; growth; business cycles; volatility; production sectors; GDP.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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