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Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data

This paper fits hidden Markov switching models to New Zealand GDP data. A primary objective is to better understand the utility of these methods for modelling growth and volatility regimes present in the New Zealand data and their interaction. Properties of the models are developed together with a description of the estimation methods, including use of the Expectation Maximisation (EM) algorithm. The models are fitted to New Zealand GDP and production sector growth rates to analyse changes in their mean and volatility over time. The paper discusses applications of the methodology to identifying changes in growth performances, and examines the timing of growth and volatility regime switching between production sectors. Conclusions to emerge are that, in contrast to the 1980s, New Zealand GDP growth experienced an unusually long period of time in high growth and low volatility regimes during the 1990s. The paper evaluates sector contributions to this 1990s experience and discusses directions for further development.

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File URL: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2002/02-08/twp02-08.pdf
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Paper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 02/08.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:02/08
Contact details of provider: Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64-4-472 2733
Fax: +64-4-473 0982
Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz

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  8. Daniel E. Sichel, 1989. "Business cycle asymmetry: a deeper look," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 93, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  12. Buckle, R-A & Carlson, J-A, 1996. "Inflation an Asymmetric Price Adjustment," Papers 96-013, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
  13. John Simon, 2001. "The Decline in Australian Output Volatility," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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  18. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
  19. Olekalns, Nilss, 1995. "The Effect of Nominal Demand Shocks on Manufacturing Output: Evidence from Disaggregated Australian Data," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(212), pages 66-76, March.
  20. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
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  26. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Are the Output Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Sample of European Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 267-78, May.
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