IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

A small scaled business-cycle analysis of the Turkish economy: some counter-cyclical evidence using new income series

  • Korap, Levent

In this paper, a small scaled business cycle analysis is tried to be conducted for the Turkish economy. For this purpose we try to extract the knowledge of cyclical correlations between real income and prices/inflation considering 1998: 100 based new income series data and then examine pro- or counter-cyclical characteristics of these aggregates. Our estimation results indicate that both deflator based price level and inflation have a counter-cyclical relationship with real output in a way supporting what the supply-driven business cycle models bring out. To further examine the direction of the relationship between the cyclical components of price level/inflation and real income, we apply to the generalized impulse response analysis. The results verify that there exists a data consistent strong negative interaction between real output and price level/inflation. Considering all these findings, we conclude that no credibility must be attributed to the discretionary demand-driven Keynesian policies to stabilize the effects of the business cycles witnessed by the Turkish economy and that the policies permitting to supply shocks which will lead to a negative interaction between output and prices, rather, must have been of a special importance in the eyes of economic agents and policy makers.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28647/1/MPRA_paper_28647.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28647.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası 1.60(2010): pp. 71-96
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28647
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2459
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-992459
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1994. "Stylized facts of business cycles in the G7 from a real business cycles perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 235-269, February.
  2. Rebelo, Sérgio, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," CEPR Discussion Papers 5384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  4. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2002. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Apostolos Serletis & David Krause, 2006. "Nominal Stylized Facts of U.S. Business Cycles," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Money And The Economy, chapter 2, pages 47-56 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  6. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge Roldos, 1997. "Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 97/9, International Monetary Fund.
  7. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
  8. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," NBER Working Papers 10734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
  10. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August.
  11. Paul Cashin & Sam Ouliaris, 2004. "Key Features of Australian Business Cycles," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 39-58, 03.
  12. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
  13. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "The econometrics of the general equilibrium approach to business cycles," Staff Report 130, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  14. Plosser, C.I., 1989. "Understanding Real Business Cycles," Papers 89-03, Rochester, Business - General.
  15. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  17. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
  18. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Finn E. Kydland & Calos E.J.M.Zarazaga, 1997. "Is the business cycle of Argentina "different?"," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 21-36.
  20. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June.
  21. J. Humberto Lopez & Stefania Fabrizio & Angel J. Ubide, 1997. "How Long is the Long Run? A Dynamic Analysis of the Spanish Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 97/74, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Ahmed, Shaghil & Park, Jae Ha, 1994. "Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-36.
  23. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  24. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1991. "International evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Staff Report 145, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  25. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  26. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  27. Yilmaz, K. & Altug, S., 1998. "Asset Returns, Inflation and Real Activity: The Case of Mexico and Turkey," Papers 1998/03, Koc University.
  28. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  29. C. Emre Alper, 2000. "Stylized Facts of Business Cycles, Excess Volatility and Capital Flows: Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Working Papers 2000/11, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  30. H. Sonmez Atesoglu & Donald Dutkowsky, 1995. "Money, output and prices in Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 38-41.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28647. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.