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A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy

Author

Listed:
  • Amélie Charles

    (Audencia Nantes, School of Management, 8 route de la Jonelière, 44312 Nantes Cedex 3.)

  • Olivier Darné

    (LEMNA, University of Nantes, IEMN–IAE, Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, BP 52231, 44322 Nantes.)

  • Claude Diebolt

    (BETA/CNRS, Université de Strasbourg.)

  • Laurent Ferrara

    (Banque de France, International Macroeconomics Division.)

Abstract

This article extends earlier efforts at redating the US industrial cycles for the prewar period (1890–1938) using the methodologies proposed by Bry and Boschan (1971) and Hamilton (1989) and based on the monthly industrial production index constructed by Miron and Romer (1990). The alternative chronology detects 90% of the peaks and troughs identified by the NBER and Romer (1994), but the new dates are consistently dated earlier for more than 50% of them, especially as regards the NBER troughs. The new dates affect the comparison of the average duration of recessions and expansions in both pre-WWI and interwar eras. Whereas the NBER reference dates show an increase in average duration of the expansions between the pre-WWI and interwar periods, the new dates show evidence of shortened length of expansions. However, the new dates confirm the traditional finding that the length of contractions increases between the both eras.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt & Laurent Ferrara, 2012. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Working Papers 12-02, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:12-02
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    Cited by:

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    2. Claude Diebolt, 2020. "L’idée de régulation dans les sciences : hommage à l’épistémologue Jean Piaget," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(4), pages 509-517.
    3. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03373425, HAL.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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