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Business Cycles and Growth: Some Reflections and Measures

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  • Victor Zarnowitz

Abstract

Is the long-term trend of the economy -- growth -- substantially influenced by the short-term movements -- business cycles -- and, if so, how? Are business cycles subject to major secular changes? Are these fluctuations the natural way growth takes in private enterprise economies or are they mainly due to some outside shocks that could be avoided or reduced? Should their analysis be based on trend-unadjusted or on trend-adjusted time series data? These are major questions that have received considerable attention in economic literature, but they are difficult and still debated. I cannot hope to resolve any of them in this paper, of course, but I shall attempt to contribute to the discussion of some aspects of how business cycles and growth are related.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Zarnowitz, 1981. "Business Cycles and Growth: Some Reflections and Measures," NBER Working Papers 0665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0665
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn61-1, January.
    2. G. Warren Nutter & Israel Borenstein & Adam Kaufman, 1962. "Growth of Industrial Production in the Soviet Union," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number nutt62-1, January.
    3. Moses Abramovitz, 1964. "Evidences of Long Swings in Aggregate Construction Since the Civil War," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra64-1, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude & Ferrara, Laurent, 2015. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 3-9.
    2. Ernst. A. Boehm & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1984. "New Economic Indicators for Australia, 1949‐84," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 17(4), pages 34-56, December.
    3. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:1:a:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Issler, Joao Victor & Notini, Hilton & Rodrigues, Claudia & Soares, Ana Flávia, 2013. "Constructing coincident indices of economic activity for the Latin American economy," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(1), April.
    5. Geoffrey H. Moore & Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "The Development and Role of the National Bureau's Business Cycle Chronologies," NBER Working Papers 1394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Martin Zagler, 2017. "Empirical evidence on growth and business cycles," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 547-566, August.
    7. Victor Zarnowitz & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1984. "Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior," NBER Working Papers 1395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Dwyer, Gerald P. & Lothian, James R., 2012. "International and historical dimensions of the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-9.

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