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A vision of the growth process in a technologically progressive economy: the United States, 1899-1941

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  • Bakker, Gerben
  • Crafts, Nicholas
  • Woltjer, Pieter

Abstract

We develop new aggregate and sectoral Total Factor Productivity (TFP) estimates for the United States between 1899 and 1941 through better coverage of sectors and better measured labor quality, and show TFP-growth was lower than previously thought, broadly based across sectors, strongly variant intertemporally, and consistent with many diverse sources of innovation. We then test and reject three prominent claims. First, the 1930s did not have the highest TFP-growth of the twentieth century. Second, TFP-growth was not predominantly caused by four leading sectors. Third, TFP-growth was not caused by a ‘yeast process’ originating in a dominant technology such as electricity.

Suggested Citation

  • Bakker, Gerben & Crafts, Nicholas & Woltjer, Pieter, 2015. "A vision of the growth process in a technologically progressive economy: the United States, 1899-1941," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64779, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:64779
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    Cited by:

    1. Nikollaq Pano & Ira Gjika, 2021. "American Advocacy to Education System Development: The Case of Albania," International Journal of Innovation and Economic Development, Inovatus Services Ltd., vol. 7(6), pages 24-34, February.
    2. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2018. "The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in twentieth-century productivity growth," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(1), pages 61-97, January.
    3. Marianna Epicoco & Magali Jaoul-Grammare & Anne Plunket, 2022. "Radical technologies, recombinant novelty and productivity growth: a cliometric approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 673-711, April.
    4. Klein, Alexander & Crafts, Nicholas, 2015. "Agglomeration Externalities and Productivity Growth : U.S. Cities in the Railroad Era, 1880-1930," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 235, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    5. Alexander Klein & Nicholas Crafts, 2015. "Agglomeration Economies and Productivity Growth: U.S. Cities, 1880-1930," Studies in Economics 1514, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    6. Nicholas Crafts, 2017. "Is Slow Economic Growth the ‘New Normal’ for Europe?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 283-297, September.
    7. Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2015. "Economic Impossibilities for our Grandchildren?," NBER Working Papers 21807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Nicholas Crafts, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: Exploring the Numbers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 57-60, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Harberger diagram; mushrooms; productivity growth; total factor productivity; yeast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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