IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/21807.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic Impossibilities for our Grandchildren?

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke

Abstract

The paper looks at the development of the secular stagnation thesis, in the context of the economic history of the time. It explores some 19th century antecedents of the thesis, before turning to its interwar development. Not only Alvin Hansen, but Keynes and Hicks were involved in the conversations that led to Hansen's eventual statement of the thesis that we are familiar with. The argument made sense in the context of the interwar period, but more so in Britain than the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2015. "Economic Impossibilities for our Grandchildren?," NBER Working Papers 21807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21807
    Note: DAE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w21807.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Piketty, 2013. "Le capital au XXIe siècle," Post-Print halshs-00979232, HAL.
    2. James Tobin, 1976. "Hansen and Public Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 32-37.
    3. Robert W. Fogel, 2005. "Reconsidering Expectations of Economic Growth After World War II from the Perspective of 2004," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(si), pages 1-2.
    4. Bakker, Gerben & Crafts, Nicholas & Woltjer, Pieter, 2015. "A vision of the growth process in a technologically progressive economy: the United States, 1899-1941," Economic History Working Papers 64779, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    5. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Walter S. Salant, 1976. "Alvin Hansen and the Fiscal Policy Seminar," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 14-23.
    7. Gordon, Robert J & Krenn, Robert, 2010. "The End of the Great Depression 1939-41: Policy Contributions and Fiscal Multipliers," CEPR Discussion Papers 8034, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    9. Paul Beaudry & Dana Galizia & Franck Portier, 2018. "Reconciling Hayek’s and Keynes’ Views of Recessions," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 119-156.
    10. Thomas Piketty & Gabriel Zucman, 2014. "Capital is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries 1700–2010," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(3), pages 1255-1310.
    11. Carter,Susan B. & Gartner,Scott Sigmund & Haines,Michael R. & Olmstead,Alan L. & Sutch,Richard & Wri (ed.), 2006. "The Historical Statistics of the United States 5 Volume Hardback Set," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521817912, January.
    12. Toye, John, 2000. "Keynes on Population," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293620.
    13. Tony Aspromourgos, 2012. "Keynes’s General Theory After 75 Years: Chapter 24 and the Character of ‘Keynesian’ Policy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(s1), pages 149-157, June.
    14. Robert J. Gordon & Robert Krenn, 2010. "The End of the Great Depression 1939-41: Policy Contributions and Fiscal Multipliers," NBER Working Papers 16380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Alvin H. Hansen, 1936. "Mr. Keynes on Underemployment Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44, pages 667-667.
    16. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
    17. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Strobbe, Francesco & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2010. "Bilateral Financial Linkages and Global Imbalances: A View on The Eve of the Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8173, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Barry Eichengreen, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: The Long View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 66-70, May.
    19. Barkbu, Bergljot & Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka, 2012. "Financial crises and the multilateral response: What the historical record shows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 422-435.
    20. William J. Barber, 1987. "The Career of Alvin H. Hansen in the 1920s and 1930s: A Study in Intellectual Transformation," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 191-205, Summer.
    21. Wrigley,E. A., 2010. "Energy and the English Industrial Revolution," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766937, January.
    22. Richard A. Musgrave, 1976. "Caring for the Real Problems," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 1-7.
    23. Thomas, Ryland & Hills, Sally & Dimsdale, Nicholas, 2010. "The UK recession in context — what do three centuries of data tell us?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(4), pages 277-291.
    24. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith Jr., 2015. "Is Piketty's "Second Law of Capitalism" Fundamental?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(4), pages 725-748.
    25. Smith, Adam, 1776. "An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number smith1776.
    26. Blanchard, Oliver & Cerutti, Eugenio & SUmmers, Lawrence, 2015. "Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications," Working Paper Series 15-070, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    27. Paul Beaudry, 2005. "Innis Lecture: Explorations in medium-run macroeconomics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1136-1159, November.
    28. William Guthrie & Vincent J. Tarascio, 1992. "Keynes on Economic Growth, Stagnation, and Structural Change: New Light on a 55-Year Controversy," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 381-412, Summer.
    29. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2015. "Low-Frequency Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 21564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Feinstein, Charles H., 1998. "Pessimism Perpetuated: Real Wages and the Standard of Living in Britain during and after the Industrial Revolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 625-658, September.
    31. A. G. Ford, 1958. "The Transfer Of British Foreign Lending, 1870–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 11(2), pages 302-308, December.
    32. Paul A. Samuelson, 1976. "Alvin Hansen as a Creative Economic Theorist," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 24-31.
    33. Harley, C. Knick, 1978. "Western Settlement and the Price of Wheat, 1872–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 865-878, December.
    34. Robert J. Gordon, 2014. "The Demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections," NBER Working Papers 19895, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Wrigley,E. A., 2010. "Energy and the English Industrial Revolution," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521131858, January.
    36. Joel Mokyr & Chris Vickers & Nicolas L. Ziebarth, 2015. "The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 31-50, Summer.
    37. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Natalia T. Tamirisa & Francesco Strobbe, 2010. "Bilateral Financial Linkages and Global Imbalances; a View on The Eve of the Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2010/257, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2015. "Economic Impossibilities For Our Grandchildren?," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _139, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Komlos John, 2016. "Has Creative Destruction become more Destructive?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-12, October.
    3. Bouvatier, Vincent & Delatte, Anne-Laure, 2015. "Waves of international banking integration: A tale of regional differences," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 354-373.
    4. Cette, Gilbert & Fernald, John & Mojon, Benoît, 2016. "The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-20.
    5. Kander, Astrid & Stern, David I., 2014. "Economic growth and the transition from traditional to modern energy in Sweden," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 56-65.
    6. Islam, Md. Rabiul, 2018. "Wealth inequality, democracy and economic freedom," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 920-935.
    7. John Foster, 2014. "Energy, knowledge and economic growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 209-238, April.
    8. Guido Baldi & Patrick Harms, 2015. "Productivity Growth, Investment, and Secular Stagnation," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 83, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Daniele Girardi & Riccardo Pariboni, 2020. "Autonomous demand and the investment share," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 428-453, July.
    10. Fix, Blair, 2019. "Human Activity, Energy & Money in the United States: Connecting the Biophysical Economy with its Pecuniary Image," Thesis Commons e74ng, Center for Open Science.
    11. Jane Humphries, 2013. "The lure of aggregates and the pitfalls of the patriarchal perspective: a critique of the high wage economy interpretation of the British industrial revolution," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 66(3), pages 693-714, August.
    12. Olivier Blanchard & Christopher J. Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2017. "Jump-Starting the Euro-Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 103-182.
    13. Horrell, Sara & Humphries, Jane & Weisdorf, Jacob, 2020. "Malthus's missing women and children: demography and wages in historical perspective, England 1280-1850," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    14. Richters, Oliver & Siemoneit, Andreas, 2017. "Fear of stagnation? A review on growth imperatives," VÖÖ Discussion Papers 6/2017, Vereinigung für Ökologische Ökonomie e.V. (VÖÖ).
    15. Christopher Kennedy, 2020. "The energy embodied in the first and second industrial revolutions," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(4), pages 887-898, August.
    16. Kent Klitgaard, 2020. "Sustainability as an Economic Issue: A BioPhysical Economic Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, January.
    17. Per Krusell & Anthony Smith & Joachim Hubmer, 2015. "The historical evolution of the wealth distribution: A quantitative-theoretic investigation," 2015 Meeting Papers 1406, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    19. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi & Chiara Punzo, 2020. "Nonlinearities and expenditure multipliers in the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def089, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    20. Atems, Bebonchu, 2019. "The effects of government spending shocks: Evidence from U.S. states," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 65-80.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.