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Low-Frequency Econometrics

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  • Ulrich K. Müller
  • Mark W. Watson

Abstract

Many questions in economics involve long-run or trend variation and covariation in time series. Yet, time series of typical lengths contain only limited information about this long-run variation. This paper suggests that long-run sample information can be isolated using a small number of low-frequency trigonometric weighted averages, which in turn can be used to conduct inference about long-run variability and covariability. Because the low-frequency weighted averages have large sample normal distributions, large sample valid inference can often be conducted using familiar small sample normal inference procedures. Moreover, the general approach is applicable for a wide range of persistent stochastic processes that go beyond the familiar I(0) and I(1) models.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2015. "Low-Frequency Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 21564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21564
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graham Elliott & Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2015. "Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 771-811, March.
    2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    3. Davidson, James, 1994. "Stochastic Limit Theory: An Introduction for Econometricians," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774037.
    4. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yixiao Sun & Sainan Jin, 2006. "Spectral Density Estimation And Robust Hypothesis Testing Using Steep Origin Kernels Without Truncation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 837-894, August.
    6. Nicholas M. Kiefer & Timothy J. Vogelsang & Helle Bunzel, 2000. "Simple Robust Testing of Regression Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 695-714, May.
    7. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2011. "Block Bootstrap Hac Robust Tests: The Sophistication Of The Naive Bootstrap," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 745-791, August.
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    9. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(5), pages 979-1016, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. La Vecchia, Davide & Ronchetti, Elvezio, 2019. "Saddlepoint approximations for short and long memory time series: A frequency domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 578-592.
    2. Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2015. "Economic Impossibilities for our Grandchildren?," NBER Working Papers 21807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2015. "Economic Impossibilities For Our Grandchildren?," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _139, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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