IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boj/bojwps/wp24e02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Aggregate Implications of Changing Industrial Trends in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Toyoichiro Shirota

    (Aoyama Gakuin University)

  • Satoshi Tsuchida

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

This study examines the extent to which the long-term declining trend in Japan's GDP growth rate is attributable to factors common to all the industries or those specific to individual industries. By applying Japan's 1958-2019 data to a multi-industry network model, we obtained the following results. First, common factors explain approximately 60% of the variation in Japan's long-term GDP growth rate. This result contrasts to that in the US: common factors explain only about 30% of the secular trend in US GDP growth. Second, however, the impact of industry-specific factors is non-negligible. In particular, machinery-industry-specific factors explain much of the low growth in the past 20 years. Finally, the spillover effects from individual industries to the aggregate GDP depend on the role of each industry in the production network, and in Japan, the influence of investment-related industries such as the machinery industries and construction is substantial.

Suggested Citation

  • Toyoichiro Shirota & Satoshi Tsuchida, 2024. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Industrial Trends in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp24e02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/wps_2024/data/wp24e02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alban Moura, 2018. "Investment Shocks, Sticky Prices, and the Endogenous Relative Price of Investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 48-63, January.
    2. Alban Moura, 2018. "Investment Shocks, Sticky Prices, and the Endogenous Relative Price of Investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 48-63, January.
    3. Ikeuchi, Kenta & Kim, Young Gak & Kwon, Hyeog Ug & Fukao, Kyoji, 2018. "Productivity Dynamics Among Japanese Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises: Empirical Analysis Based on the Credit Risk-Database Productivity," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 69(4), pages 363-377, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ichiro Fukunaga & Yoshihiko Hogen & Yoichi Ueno, 2024. "Japan's Economy and Prices over the Past 25 Years: Past Discussions and Recent Issues," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-14, Bank of Japan.
    2. Ichiro Fukunaga & Yoshihiko Hogen & Yojiro Ito & Kenji Kanai & Satoshi Tsuchida, 2024. "Potential Growth in Japan: Issues on Its Relationship with Prices and Wages," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-16, Bank of Japan.
    3. Kosuke Aoki & Yoshihiko Hogen & Yojiro Ito & Kenji Kanai & Kosuke Takatomi, 2024. "Determinants of Price Markups at Japanese Firms and Implications for Productivity," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-15, Bank of Japan.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alban Moura, 2023. "Trend breaks and the long-run implications of investment-specific technological progress," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(16), pages 2270-2275, September.
    2. Kim, Jongsoo & Kim, Kwang Hwan & Shim, Myungkyu, 2023. "Are all economic fluctuations bad for consumers?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Yury N. Vorobyov & Elena I. Vorobyova, 2019. "Investment potential of Russia’s economy: Opportunities for financing the development," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 20(1), pages 41-60, March.
    4. Alban Moura & Olivier Pierrard, 2024. "Bayesian Evaluation of DSGE Models with Housing and Collateral Effects," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 155, pages 91-124.
    5. Moura, Alban, 2021. "Are neutral and investment-specific technology shocks correlated?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Fève, Patrick & Sanchez, Pablo Garcia & Moura, Alban & Pierrard, Olivier, 2021. "Costly default and skewed business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Emanuele Colombo Azimonti & Luca Portoghese & Patrizio Tirelli, 2022. "Covid-19 supply-side fiscal policies to escape the health-vs-economy dilemma," DEM Working Papers Series 208, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Is There A Single Shock That Drives The Majority Of Business Cycle Fluctuations?," Working Papers 1906, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    9. Seunghoon Na & Hyunseung Oh, 2020. "Computerizing Households and the Role of Investment-Specific Productivity in Business Cycles," International Finance Discussion Papers 1292, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Cho, Daeha & Kim, Kwang Hwan, 2022. "Inefficient relative price fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. Fève, Patrick & Moura, Alban & Pierrard, Olivier, 2022. "The fall in shadow banking and the slow U.S. recovery," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Takuji Fueki & Shinnosuke Katsuki & Ichiro Muto & Yu Sugisaki, 2023. "Automation and Nominal Rigidities," IMES Discussion Paper Series 23-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    13. Aydan Dogan, 2019. "Investment Specific Technology Shocks and Emerging Market Business Cycle Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 202-220, October.
    14. Fève, Patrick & Moura, Alban & Pierrard, Olivier, 2019. "Shadow Banking and the Great Recession: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," TSE Working Papers 19-996, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    15. Ivashchenko, Sergey & Mutschler, Willi, 2020. "The effect of observables, functional specifications, model features and shocks on identification in linearized DSGE models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 280-292.
    16. Aydan Dogan, 2019. "Investment Specific Technology Shocks and Emerging Market Business Cycle Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 202-220, October.
    17. Fève, Patrick & Sanchez, Pablo Garcia & Moura, Alban & Pierrard, Olivier, 2021. "Costly default and skewed business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    18. Fabio Massimo Piersanti & Patrizio Tirelli, 2020. "Endogenous Productivity Dynamics in a Two-Sector Business Cycle Model," Working Papers 434, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2020.
    19. Alban Moura, 2020. "Total factor productivity and the measurement of neutral technology," BCL working papers 143, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    20. Nikolaos Charalampidis, 2020. "The U.S. Labor Income Share And Automation Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(1), pages 294-318, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trend growth; Industrial linkages; Production network; Growth accounting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp24e02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank of Japan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bojgvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.