IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pen/papers/24-002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Wealth of Working Nations

Author

Listed:
  • Jesús Fernández-Villaverde

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Gustavo Ventura

    (Arizona State University)

  • Wen Yao

    (Tsinghua University)

Abstract

Due to population aging, GDP growth per capita and GDP growth per working-age adult have become quite different among many advanced economies over the last several decades. Countries whose GDP growth per capita performance has been lackluster, like Japan, have done surprisingly well in terms of GDP growth per working-age adult. Indeed, from 1998 to 2019, Japan has grown slightly faster than the U.S. in terms of per working-age adult: an accumulated 31.9% vs. 29.5%. Furthermore, many advanced economies appear to be on parallel balanced growth trajectories in terms of working-age adults despite important differences in levels. Motivated by this observation, we calibrate a standard neoclassical growth model in which the growth of the working-age adult population varies in line with the data for each economy. Despite the underlying demographic differences, the calibrated model tracks output per working-age adult in most economies of our sample. Our results imply that the growth behavior of mature, aging economies is not puzzling from a theoretical perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Gustavo Ventura & Wen Yao, 2023. "The Wealth of Working Nations," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:24-002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/24-002%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy J. Kehoe & Juan Pablo Nicolini (ed.), 2022. "A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960-2017," Books, University of Minnesota Press, number 1, September.
    2. Domenico Ferraro & Giuseppe Fiori, 2020. "The Aging of the Baby Boomers: Demographics and Propagation of Tax Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 167-193, April.
    3. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Ventura, Gustavo & Yao, Wen, 2025. "The wealth of working nations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1990. "Demographics, Fiscal Policy, and US Saving in the 1980s and Beyond," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy: Volume 4, pages 73-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Rainer Kotschy & David E. Bloom & Rainer Franz Kotschy, 2023. "Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10613, CESifo.
    6. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    7. Weil, David N., 1997. "The economics of population aging," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 967-1014, Elsevier.
    8. German Cubas & B. Ravikumar & Gustavo Ventura, 2016. "Talent, Labor Quality, and Economic Development," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 160-181, July.
    9. repec:ehl:wpaper:64779 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Timothy J. Kehoe & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Thomas Sargent, 2022. "A Framework for Studying the Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America," Book Chapters, in: Kehoe, Timothy J. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo (ed.), A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960-2017, pages 19-42, University of Minnesota Press.
    11. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Lee Ohanian & Wen Yao, 2023. "The Neoclassical Growth of China," CESifo Working Paper Series 10499, CESifo.
    12. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2003. "Economic Growth, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262025531, December.
    13. Esquivel, Carlos & Kehoe, Timothy J. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2022. "Lessons from the Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America," Book Chapters, in: Kehoe, Timothy J. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo (ed.), A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960-2017, chapter 31, pages 537-565, University of Minnesota Press.
    14. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    15. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Delventhal, Matthew J. & Guner, Nezih, 2021. "Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space," CEPR Discussion Papers 16708, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Hoshida, Keisuke, 2017. "The Effects Of Negative Population Growth: An Analysis Using A Semiendogenous R&D Growth Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(7), pages 1545-1560, October.
    17. Fatih Karahan & Benjamin Pugsley & Ayşegül Şahin, 2024. "Demographic Origins of the Start-up Deficit," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(7), pages 1986-2023, July.
    18. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Dario Laudati & Lee Ohanian & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2023. "Accounting for the Duality of the Italian Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 50, pages 267-290, October.
    19. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Ron P. Smith & Tobias Grasl, 2019. "Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 193-222, January.
    20. Kaiji Chen & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Selahattin İmrohoroğlu, 2007. "The Japanese saving rate between 1960 and 2000: productivity, policy changes, and demographics," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 32(1), pages 87-104, July.
    21. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2019. "The Solow growth model with a CES production function and declining population," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1979-1988.
    22. Faruqee, Hamid & Muhleisen, Martin, 2003. "Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-210, April.
    23. Hugo Hopenhayn & Julian Neira & Rish Singhania, 2022. "From Population Growth to Firm Demographics: Implications for Concentration, Entrepreneurship and the Labor Share," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1879-1914, July.
    24. Kitao, Sagiri, 2015. "Fiscal cost of demographic transition in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 37-58.
    25. Nicholas Bloom & John Van Reenen, 2010. "Why Do Management Practices Differ across Firms and Countries?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 203-224, Winter.
    26. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2023. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 306-332, April.
    27. Takashi Oshio & Emiko Usui & Satoshi Shimizutani, 2018. "Labor Force Participation of the Elderly in Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Working Longer, pages 163-178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2009. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 804-826, June.
    29. Charles I. Jones, 2022. "The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3489-3527, November.
    30. Maxim Pinkovskiy & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2016. "Newer Need Not be Better: Evaluating the Penn World Tables and the World Development Indicators Using Nighttime Lights," NBER Working Papers 22216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    33. Bakker, Gerben & Crafts, Nicholas & Woltjer, Pieter, 2015. "A Vision of the Growth Process in a Technologically Progressive Economy:the United States, 1899-1941," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 257, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    34. German Cubas & B. Ravikumar & Gustavo Ventura, 2016. "Talent, Labor Quality, and Economic Development," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 160-181, July.
    35. Javier Cravino & Andrei Levchenko & Marco Rojas, 2022. "Population Aging and Structural Transformation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 479-498, October.
    36. Klein, Paul & Ventura, Gustavo, 2021. "Taxation, expenditures and the Irish miracle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1062-1077.
    37. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2004. "New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 779-816, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Ventura, Gustavo & Yao, Wen, 2025. "The wealth of working nations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    2. Daniel Fehrle & Vasilij Konysev, 2025. "To converge or not to converge: Accounting for the German reunification," Discussion Paper Series 348, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
    3. Shirota, Toyoichiro & Tsuchida, Satoshi, 2025. "Aggregate implications of changing industrial trends in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Delalibera, Bruno R. & Pereira, Luciene & Rios, Heron & Serrano-Quintero, Rafael, 2024. "Capital misallocation and economic development in a dynamic open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hellwagner, Timon & Weber, Enzo, 2021. "Labour Market Adjustments to Population Decline," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242455, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Ichiroh DAITOH & Hiroaki SASAKI, 2023. "At the Right Time:Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans Model with Declining Population," Discussion papers e-23-002, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    3. Cao, Huoqing & Chen, Shiyi & Xi, Xican, 2023. "Aging, migration, and structural transformation in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2023. "Growth with automation capital and declining population," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    5. Thomas Ziesemer & Anne von Gässler, 2021. "Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(2), pages 129-160, May.
    6. Wu, Feifei & Xu, Peipei & Gao, Bo & Ma, Jing, 2024. "Export contraction and input switching in an aging China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Hiroaki Sasaki & Taichi Hori & Rokuhisa Hasegawa & Shigehiro Tajiri & Kaito Nakamura, 2025. "Growth with human capital accumulation and declining population: an augmented Solow model approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(1), pages 63-72.
    8. Lee, Jong-Wha & Song, Eunbi, 2025. "Demographic change and long-term economic growth path in Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    9. Madsen, Jakob B., 2025. "The aging society: Is growth reverting to pre-industrial levels in the 21st century?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    10. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.
    11. Bucci, Alberto, 2023. "Can a negative population growth rate sustain a positive economic growth rate in the long run?," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 17-28.
    12. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    13. Tarek M Harchaoui & Murat Üngör, 2018. "The Lion on the Move Towards the World Frontier: Catching Up or Remaining Stuck?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 27(3), pages 251-273.
    14. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Mino, Kazuo, 2024. "Effects of exhaustible resources and declining population on economic growth with Hotelling’s rule," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Rainer Kotschy & Uwe Sunde & Tommaso MonacelliManaging Editor, 2018. "Can education compensate the effect of population ageing on macroeconomic performance?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 33(96), pages 587-634.
    16. Bell, William Paul, 2005. "An evaluation of policies to reduce fiscal pressure induced by population ageing in Australia," MPRA Paper 38286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Nicolas Afflatet, 2016. "The impact of population ageing on public debt. A panel analysis for eighteen european countries," Working Papers 1615, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    18. Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Demographics and the decline in firm entry: Lessons from a life-cycle model," Discussion Papers 15/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Restuccia, Diego, 2014. "Barriers to capital accumulation in a model of technology adoption and schooling," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 81-91.
    20. Trouvain, Florian, 2024. "Technology Adoption, Innovation, and Inequality in a Global World," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302377, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pen:papers:24-002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Administrator (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deupaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.