IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aug/augsbe/348.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

To converge or not to converge: Accounting for the German reunification

Author

Abstract

German reunification in 1990 marked the first sudden integration of a socialist and capitalist economy. Despite East Germany’s (EG) economic catch-up with West Ger- many (WG), the integration remains unfinished, as indicated by per capita output in EG still being about one-third lower. To study this unfinished regional convergence, we apply wedge-growth accounting using a human capital-augmented, two-sector, two-region model, incorporating labor supply constraints to capture key qualitative differences between EG and WG. Our findings show that sectoral labor and capital wedges are similar within regions and have significantly converged between regions, with EG initially overusing inputs. While productivity in the nontradable goods sector has fully converged, the tradable sector in EG remains less productive than in WG. Counterfactual analysis suggests that this productivity gap, together with persistent net inflows to EG, explains EG’s lower economic activity. However, reducing the in- flows would result in significant welfare losses in EG. Furthermore, we account for the reunification event, identifying a substantial productivity catch-up in EG between 1989 and 1991. Our findings offer clear policy insights, highlighting the trade-offs between economic activity and fiscal transfers.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Fehrle & Vasilij Konysev, 2025. "To converge or not to converge: Accounting for the German reunification," Discussion Paper Series 348, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:aug:augsbe:348
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://opus.bibliothek.uni-augsburg.de/opus4/files/121337/121337.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    2. Burda, Michael C. & Severgnini, Battista, 2018. "Total factor productivity convergence in German states since reunification: Evidence and explanations," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 192-211.
    3. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde & Jürgen Schupp & Gert G. Wagner, 2011. "Individual Risk Attitudes: Measurement, Determinants, And Behavioral Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 522-550, June.
    4. Erasmus Kersting, 2008. "The 1980s Recession in the UK: A Business Cycle Accounting Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 179-191, January.
    5. Shu-Shiuan Lu, 2012. "East Asian growth experience revisited from the perspective of a neoclassical model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 359-376, July.
    6. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    7. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Ventura, Gustavo & Yao, Wen, 2025. "The wealth of working nations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    8. Boltho, Andrea & Carlin, Wendy & Scaramozzino, Pasquale, 2018. "Why East Germany did not become a new Mezzogiorno," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 308-325.
    9. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian & Stüber, Heiko & Wellschmied, Felix, 2022. "Monopsony Makes Firms Not Only Small but Also Unproductive: Why East Germany Has Not Converged," IZA Discussion Papers 15293, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    11. Anton Cheremukhin & Mikhail Golosov & Sergei Guriev & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2017. "The Industrialization and Economic Development of Russia through the Lens of a Neoclassical Growth Model," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(2), pages 613-649.
    12. Snower, Dennis J. & Merkl, Christian, 2006. "The caring hand that cripples: The East German labor market after reunification (detailed version)," Kiel Working Papers 1263, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Howard, David H, 1977. "Rationing, Quantity Constraints, and Consumption Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(2), pages 399-412, March.
    14. Barro, Robert J & Grossman, Herschel I, 1971. "A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 82-93, March.
    15. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "The Portugese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 143-210.
    16. Loukas Karabarbounis, 2014. "The Labor Wedge: MRS vs. MPN," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 206-223, April.
    17. Mertens, Matthias & Mueller, Steffen, 2022. "The East-West German gap in revenue productivity:Just a tale of output prices?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 815-831.
    18. Sebastian Heise & Tommaso Porzio, 2022. "Labor Misallocation Across Firms and Regions," NBER Working Papers 30298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Hans‐Werner Sinn, 2002. "Germany’s Economic Unification: An Assessment after Ten Years," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 113-128, February.
    20. Nicola Fuchs-Schuendeln & Dirk Krueger & Mathias Sommer, 2010. "Inequality Trends for Germany in the Last Two Decades: A Tale of Two Countries," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(1), pages 103-132, January.
    21. Anton Cheremukhin & Mikhail Golosov & Sergei Guriev & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2024. "The Political Development Cycle: The Right and the Left in People's Republic of China from 1953," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(4), pages 1107-1139, April.
    22. John Bailey Jones & Sohini Sahu, 2017. "Transition accounting for India in a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 299-339, November.
    23. Fabio Canova & Morten Ravn, 2000. "The Macroeconomic Effects of German Unification: Real Adjustments and the Welfare State," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(3), pages 423-460, July.
    24. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Loukas Karabarbounis & Rohan Kekre, 2023. "The Macroeconomics of the Greek Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(9), pages 2411-2457, September.
    25. Dennis J. Snower & Christian Merkl, 2006. "The Caring Hand that Cripples: The East German Labor Market after Reunification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 375-382, May.
    26. Ruy Lama, 2011. "Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 295-316, April.
    27. Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola & Izem, Rima, 2012. "Explaining the low labor productivity in East Germany – A spatial analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-21.
    28. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    29. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    30. Albrecht Glitz & Erik Meyersson, 2020. "Industrial Espionage and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 1055-1103, April.
    31. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    32. Henning Klodt, 2000. "Industrial Policy and the East German Productivity Puzzle," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(3), pages 315-333, August.
    33. Sebastian Weinand & Ludwig von Auer, 2020. "Anatomy of regional price differentials: evidence from micro-price data," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 413-440, October.
    34. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "The Portugese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 143-210.
    35. Gregor Jarosch & Laura Pilossoph & Anthony Swaminathan, 2025. "Should Friday be the New Saturday? Hours Worked and Hours Wanted," NBER Working Papers 33577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Fehrle & Vasilij Konysev, 2025. "A “Marginal” Tale of Two Germanies: Accounting for the Systemic Divide," Discussion Paper Series 347, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
    2. Ufuk Akcigit & Harun Alp & André Diegmann & Nicolas Serrano-Velarde, 2023. "Committing to Grow: Privatizations and Firm Dynamics in East Germany," International Finance Discussion Papers 1382, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Akcigit, Ufuk & Alp, Harun & Diegmann, André & Serrano-Velarde, Nicolas, 2025. "Committing to grow: Employment targets and firm dynamics," IWH Discussion Papers 17/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2025.
    4. Benigno, Gianluca & Converse, Nathan & Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 60-87.
    5. repec:zbw:ifwkwp:1309 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2008. "Escaping the unemployment trap: The case of East Germany," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 542-556, December.
    7. Alexander Monge-Naranjo & Juan M. Sánchez & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2019. "Natural Resources and Global Misallocation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 79-126, April.
    8. Zymek, Robert, 2015. "Factor proportions and the growth of world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-53.
    9. Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola & Izem, Rima, 2012. "Explaining the low labor productivity in East Germany – A spatial analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-21.
    10. Smolny, Werner, 2010. "Dynamic adjustment and long-run equilibria: Panel data estimates for the East German states," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1223-1229, September.
    11. Petre Caraiani, 2016. "Business Cycle Accounting for Peripheral European Economies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(5), pages 468-496, November.
    12. del Río, Fernando & Lores, Francisco-Xavier, 2021. "Accounting for U.S. economic growth 1954–2017," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    13. Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva, 2009. "Riunificazione intertedesca e politiche per la convergenza," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 14, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    14. Suparna Chakraborty & Keisuke Otsu, 2012. "Deconstructing Growth - A Business Cycle Accounting Approach with application to BRICs," Studies in Economics 1212, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    15. Izem, Rima & Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola, 2007. "Explaining the low labor productivity in East Germany: a spatial analysis," Kiel Working Papers 1307, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Steffen Müller, 2021. "Der Ost-West-Produktivitätsunterschied: Was sagt die mikroökonomische Forschung? [The East-West-German Productivity Gap: Lessons from firm-level data?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(1), pages 21-25, March.
    17. Daniel Fehrle & Johannes Huber, 2020. "Business cycle accounting for the German fiscal stimulus program during the Great Recession," Discussion Paper Series 339, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
    18. Katja Mann, 2021. "Does foreign capital go where the returns are? Financial integration and capital allocation efficiency1," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3945-3971, July.
    19. Samuel Verevis & Murat Üngör, 2021. "What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 20-50, February.
    20. Erich Gundlach, 2003. "Growth Effects of EU Membership: The Case of East Germany," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 237-270, September.
    21. Mertens, Matthias & Mueller, Steffen, 2022. "The East-West German gap in revenue productivity:Just a tale of output prices?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 815-831.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    German reunification; Regional convergence; Wedge-growth accounting; Comparative inefficiencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aug:augsbe:348. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Simone Raab-Kratzmeier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ivaugde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.