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The Industrialization and Economic Development of Russia through the Lens of a Neoclassical Growth Model

Author

Listed:
  • Anton Cheremukhin
  • Mikhail Golosov

    (Princeton University)

  • Sergei Guriev

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)

  • Aleh Tsyvinski

    (YALE - Department of Computer Science - Yale University [New Haven])

Abstract

This article studies the structural transformation of Russia in 1885–1940 from an agrarian to an industrial economy through the lens of a two-sector neoclassical growth model. We construct a data set that covers Tsarist Russia during 1885–1913 and Soviet Union during 1928–1940. We develop a methodology that allows us to identify the types of frictions and economic mechanisms that had the largest quantitative impact on Russian economic development. We find that entry barriers and monopoly power in the non-agricultural sector were the most important reason for Tsarist Russia's failure to industrialize before World War I. Soviet industrial transformation after 1928 was achieved primarily by reducing such frictions, albeit coinciding with a significantly lower performance of productivity in both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. We find no evidence that Tsarist agricultural institutions were a significant barrier to labour reallocation to manufacturing, or that "Big Push" mechanisms were a major driver of Soviet growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Anton Cheremukhin & Mikhail Golosov & Sergei Guriev & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2017. "The Industrialization and Economic Development of Russia through the Lens of a Neoclassical Growth Model," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03878658, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03878658
    DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdw026
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03878658
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