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The Macroeconomics of the Greek Depression

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Chodorow-Reich

    (Harvard University)

  • Loukas Karabarbounis

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Rohan Kekre

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract

The Greek economy has experienced three distinct phases in the past 20 years: a boom from 1999 to 2007, a crash from 2007 to 2012, and a flattening from 2012 to 2017. We explore these dynamics using a quantitative model of a two-sector small open economy with nominal frictions, collateral constraints, and endogenous utilization. We first evaluate the roles of shocks to productivity, financial conditions, fiscal policy, external demand, and disaster risk in contributing to the cycle. We then ask whether counterfactual policies such as an unexpected devaluation or an alternative mix of fiscal adjustments could have facilitated the recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Loukas Karabarbounis & Rohan Kekre, 2019. "The Macroeconomics of the Greek Depression," 2019 Meeting Papers 1396, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:1396
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    Cited by:

    1. Barro, Robert J. & Liao, Gordon Y., 2021. "Rare disaster probability and options pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 750-769.
    2. Alexi Thompson & James J. Jozefowicz, 2025. "Greek imports from china: monopoly power of the piraeus port deal," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Bertinelli, Luisito & Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2022. "Labor market effects of technology shocks biased toward the traded sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2023. "Utilization-adjusted TFP across countries: Measurement and implications for international comovement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Dimitris Papageorgiou & Stylianos Tsiaras, 2021. "The Greek Great Depression from a neoclassical perspective," Working Papers 286, Bank of Greece.
    6. Vasiliki Dimakopoulou & George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2024. "Repayment of EU Bailout Loans in a Member-Country of the ES: The Case of Greece," CESifo Working Paper Series 11519, CESifo.
    7. George Liontos & Konstantinos Mavrigiannakis & Eugenia Vella, 2023. "The Macroeconomics of Skills Mismatch in the Presence of Emigration," DEOS Working Papers 2314, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    8. Mariano Croce & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Samuel Rosen, 2022. "SONOMA: a Small Open ecoNOmy for MAcrofinance," International Finance Discussion Papers 1349, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Aligishiev, Zamid & Blotevogel, Robert, 2025. "No quick fix: The recovery and resilience plan and external position in Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2025. "Why hours worked decline less after technology shocks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    11. Robert J. Barro & Gordon Y. Liao, 2019. "Tractable Rare Disaster Probability and Options-Pricing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Robert J. Kolesar & Rok Spruk, 2024. "Effect of Austerity Measures on Infant Mortality: Evidence from Greece," Papers 2407.17084, arXiv.org.
    13. Robert Blotevogel, 2024. "Saving for stability: Greece’s Recovery and Resilience Plan and its impact on the external position," Working Papers 65, European Stability Mechanism, revised 19 Nov 2024.
    14. Economides, George & Papageorgiou, Dmitris & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2020. "Macroeconomic policy lessons from Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 107155, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Dimitrakopoulou, Lydia & Genakos, Christos & Kampouris, Themistoklis & Papadokonstantaki, Stella, 2024. "VAT pass-through and competition: Evidence from the Greek islands," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    16. Dimakopoulou, Vasiliki & Economides, George & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2022. "The ECB's policy, the Recovery Fund and the importance of trust and fiscal corrections: The case of Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    17. Konysev, Vasilij & Fehrle, Daniel, 2025. "To converge or not to converge: Accounting for the German reunification," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325462, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. George Economides & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2021. "Austerity, Assistance and Institutions: Lessons from the Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 435-478, July.
    19. Dellas, Harris & Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Papageorgiou, Dimitris & Vourvachaki, Evangelia, 2024. "Fiscal policy with an informal sector," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    20. Tavares, Tiago, 2019. "Labor market distortions under sovereign debt default crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    21. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2023. "Sectoral fiscal multipliers and technology in open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    22. Mavrigiannakis, Konstantinos & Vasilatos, Andreas & Vella, Eugenia, 2025. "Fiscal tightening and skills mismatch," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    23. Stelios Giannoulakis & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2023. "Financial crises, firm‐level shocks and large downturns: Evidence from Greece," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1549-1562, April.
    24. Rohan Kekre, 2022. "Optimal Currency Areas with Labor Market Frictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 44-95, April.
    25. Maideu-Morera, Gerard, 2024. "Optimal Fiscal Rules and Macroprudential Policies with Sovereign Default Risk," TSE Working Papers 24-1534, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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