IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/11573.html

Demographics, Fiscal Policy, and US Saving in the 1980s and Beyond

In: Tax Policy and the Economy: Volume 4

Author

Listed:
  • Alan J. Auerbach
  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Abstract

This paper focuses on U.S. saving, demographics, and fiscal policy. We use data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys of the 1980s to consider the effect of demographic change on past and future U.S. saving rates. Our findings indicate that demographic change may significantly alter the U.S. rate of national saving and current account position over the next 50 years. The gradual aging of the population is predicted to lead to higher saving rates over the next three decades with declines in the rate of saving thereafter. Associated with these predicted saving rate changes is a predicted improvement in the U.S. current account position is the 1990s, with a very gradual deterioration during the subsequent decades. While demographics is a potentially very important factor in explaining saving, it does not appear to explain the drop in the U.S. saving rate in the 1980s. What happened to U.S. saving in the 1980s remains an intriguing puzzle.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1990. "Demographics, Fiscal Policy, and US Saving in the 1980s and Beyond," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy: Volume 4, pages 73-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:11573
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11573.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David, Paul A & Scadding, John L, 1974. "Private Savings: Ultrarationality, Aggregation, and "Denison's Law."," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages 225-249, Part I, M.
    2. Alan J. Auerbach & Kevin Hassett, 1991. "Corporate Savings and Shareholder Consumption," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 75-102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 706-732, August.
    4. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
    5. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Dynamics of an Aging Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 2797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Christopher D. Carroll & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Consumption Growth Parallels Income Growth: Some New Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 305-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Finite lifetimes and the effects of budget deficits on national saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 369-391, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Afflatet, 2016. "The impact of population ageing on public debt. A panel analysis for eighteen european countries," Working Papers 1615, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    2. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Ventura, Gustavo & Yao, Wen, 2025. "The wealth of working nations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    3. Barr, Nicholas, 1992. "Economic theory and the welfare state : a survey and interpretation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 279, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Nicolas Afflatet, 2018. "The Impact of Population Ageing on Public Debt: A Panel Data Analysis for 18 European Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 68-77.
    5. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2021. "What explains the decline in r ∗ ? Rising income inequality versus demographic shifts," Working Papers 2021-12, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    6. Auclert, Adrien & Malmberg, Hannes & Martenet, Frederic & Rognlie, Matthew, 2021. "Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century," CEPR Discussion Papers 16470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Kyoji FUKAO & Tatsuji MAKINO, 2015. "Aging, Interregional Income Inequality, and Industrial Structure: An empirical analysis based on the R-JIP Database and the R-LTES Database," Discussion papers 15022, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Frederic L. Pryor, 2003. "Demographic Effects on Personal Saving in the Future," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(3), pages 541-559, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. C. Lee, 1998. "Life Cycle Savings in the United States, 1900-1990," CPE working papers 0014, University of Chicago - Centre for Population Economics.
    2. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    3. Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research.
    4. Freddy Heylen & Renaat Van de Kerckhove, 2014. "Heterogeneous ability and the effects of fiscal policy on employment, income and welfare in general equilibrium," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 14/898, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. T. Buyse & F. Heylen & R. Van De Kerckhove, 2011. "Pension reform, employment by age, and long-run growth in OECD countries," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/719, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Japanese Finance in the 1980s: A Survey," NBER Chapters, in: Trade with Japan: Has the Door Opened Wider?, pages 225-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jan Hagemejer & Marcin Bielecki & Karolina Goraus & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2014. "The Sooner The Better - The Welfare Effects of the Retirement Age Increase Under Various Pension Schemes," EcoMod2014 6868, EcoMod.
    8. Barry P. Bosworth & Gary Burtless, 1997. "Social Security reform in a global context," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue jun, pages 243-274.
    9. Michael R. Darby, 1984. "Some pleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 8(Spr).
    10. Orazio Attanasio, 1994. "Personal Saving in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: International Comparisons of Household Saving, pages 57-124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Otto Gandenberger, 2000. "Is the Fiscal Deficit Misconceived? Proponents of Generational Accounting Overstate their Case," CESifo Working Paper Series 282, CESifo.
    12. Banks, James & Blundell, Richard & Tanner, Sarah, 1995. "Consumption growth, saving and retirement in the U.K," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 255-275, September.
    13. Shiyu Li & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Shuanglin Lin & Wing Thye Woo & Yunyun Jiang, 2016. "How Much Will China Save? Projecting China's National Savings Through 2040," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 255-274, September.
    14. Noam Gruber, 2023. "A relative answer to the growth–saving puzzle," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 139-171, August.
    15. Marta Melguizo Garde, 2007. "La motivación de las transmisiones lucrativas entre generaciones de una familia: modelos teóricos y evidencia empírica," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 181(2), pages 81-118, June.
    16. Mauro Baranzini, 2005. "Modigliani's life-cycle theory of savings fifty years later," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 109-172.
    17. F. Gerard Adams & Byron Gangnes, 2000. "Will Japan's Current Account Turn to Deficit?," Working Papers 200010, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    18. Koumparoulis, Dimitrios, 2006. "Ευρωπαϊκή Δημοσιονομική Πολιτική Και Οικονομική Μεγέθυνση: Η Νεοκλασική Οικονομική Θεωρία Για Την Περίπτωση Της Ελλάδας [European Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: The Neoclassical Economic Theory in the Case of Greece]," MPRA Paper 44310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Kjetil Storesletten, 2000. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy through Immigration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 300-323, April.
    20. David W. Campbell, 1999. "Explaining Japan's Saving Rate," Macroeconomics 9902004, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:11573. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.