Will Japan's Current Account Turn to Deficit?
The Japanese current account has been in surplus since 1981, ranging from 1% to more than 4% of GDP. In this paper, we review the macroeconomic forces that have driven the surplus and describe likely changes in the first part of the next century. In coming years, structural change in Japan's economy-population aging, the globalization of production, and financial market reforms-will alter the underlying determinants of the surplus. While the net effect of these forces is difficult to predict, the most likely outcome is a gradual closing of the current account gap. We use large-model simulation analysis to evaluate the potential for specific developments to alter the current account, and we assess their likely impact on the Japanese economy.
|Date of creation:||2000|
|Publication status:||Published in Magnus Blomström, Byron Gangnes and Sumner La Croix, eds., Japan’s New Economy: Continuity and Change in the 21st Century, Oxford University Press, 2000.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI 96822|
Web page: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/working.html Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
- Kouri, Pentti J K, 1976. " The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and in the Long Run: A Monetary Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 280-304.
- Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990.
"Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 453-485, September.
- Paul R Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects of Prelected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 90/5, International Monetary Fund.
- Steven A. Symansky & Peter S. Heller, 1997. "Implications for Savings of Aging in the Asian “Tigers”," IMF Working Papers 97/136, International Monetary Fund.
- Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1995. "Is Japan's Household Saving Rate Really High?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 41(4), pages 373-397, December.
- Horioka, C.Y., 1993. "Is Japan's Household Saving Rate Really High?," ISER Discussion Paper 0308, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Adams, F. Gerard & Gangnes, Byron, 1996. "Japan's persistent trade surplus: Policies for adjustment," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 309-333, September.
- Byron Gangnes & F. Gerard Adams, 1994. "Japan's Persistent Trade Surplus: Policies for Adjustment," Working Papers 199404, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1981. "Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange-Rate Dynamics, and Optimal Asset Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1142-1161, December.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1980. "Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange-Rate Dynamics, and Optimal Asset Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 0599, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maddison, Angus, 1992. " A Long-Run Perspective on Saving," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 181-196.
- Maddison, A., 1991. "A Long Run Perspective on Saving," Papers 443, Groningen State, Institute of Economic Research-.
- Razin, A., 1993. "The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence," Papers 2-93, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
- Assaf Razin, 1993. "The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Taniuchi, Mitsuru, 1997. "Recent developments in Japan's financial sector: Bad loans and financial deregulation," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 225-244.
- Matthew Higgins & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1996. "Asian Demography and Foreign Capital Dependence," NBER Working Papers 5560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- F. Gerard Adams & Peter A. Prazmowski, 2003. "Why are saving rates in East Asia so high? Reviving the life cycle hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 275-289, 04.
- Takatoshi Ito & Michael Melvin, "undated". "The Political Economy of Japan's Big Bang," Working Papers 2132866, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Web Technician)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.