Financing Consumption in an Aging Japan: The Role of Foreign Capital Inflows in Immigration
We project the impact of demographic change on Japanese capital flows by simulating the impact of population aging on Japanese saving and investment rates. As aging depresses saving rates, in our baseline projections, we show that by 2015, foreign capital inflows will comprise about 15 percent of Japanese output. A distinguishing feature of this paper is that we compare the capital flows that occur without immigration to the capital inflows that would occur with immigration of 400,000 people annually. With the larger labor force from immigration and the larger induced capital accumulation, output will be 22 percent higher by 2020, and 50 percent higher by 2040. The higher output means that less capital needs to be imported; by 2015, Japan will be importing only 8 percent of its output.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Dekle, Robert. "Financing Consumption In An Aging Japan: The Role Of Foreign Capital Inflows And Immigration," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2004, v18(4,Dec), 506-527.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ishi, Hiromitsu, 2000. "Making Fiscal Policy in Japan: Economic Effects and Institutional Settings," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199240715, December.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Dynamics of an Aging Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 2797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1995.
"Is Japan's Household Saving Rate Really High?,"
Review of Income and Wealth,
International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 41(4), pages 373-97, December.
- Hiroko Ishii & Erika Wada, 1998. "Local Government Spending: Solving the Mystery of Japanese Fiscal Packages," Working Paper Series WP98-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Robert Dekle & Lawrence Summers, 1991.
"Japan's High Saving Rate Reaffirmed,"
Monetary and Economic Studies,
Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 9(2), pages 63-78, September.
- Richard H. Clarida, 1993. "International Capital Mobility, Public Investment and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund.
- Robert J. Barro, 2013.
"Inflation and Economic Growth,"
Annals of Economics and Finance,
Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
- Horioka, C.Y., 1991. "Saving in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0248, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, March.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1981.
"Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation,"
457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
- Takero Doi & Takeo Hoshi, 2002.
"Paying for the FILP,"
NBER Working Papers
9385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1990.
"Why is Japan's household saving rate so high? A literature survey,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-92, March.
- Yuji Horioka, Charles, 1988. "Why is Japan's Household Saving Rate So High? A Literature Survey," CEPR Publications 244421, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
- David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990.
"An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
- Charles Yuji Horioka, 2001.
"Are the Japanese Selfish, Altruistic, or Dynastic?,"
NBER Working Papers
8577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles Yuji Horioka, 2001. "Are the Japanese Selfish, Altruistic, or Dynastic?," ISER Discussion Paper 0556, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Charles Yuji Horioka, 2001. "Are the Japanese Selfish, Altruistic, or Dynastic?," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-134, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Barro, Robert J, 1979.
"On the Determination of the Public Debt,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October.
- Magnus Blomström & Jennifer Corbett & Fumio Hayashi & Anil Kashyap, 2003. "Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number blom03-1, 08.
- Yukinobu Kitamura & Noriyuki Takayama, 1999. "Lessons from Generational Accounting in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 171-175, May.
- Paul R Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990.
"Macroeconomic Effects of Prelected Population Aging in Industrial Countries,"
IMF Working Papers
90/5, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 453-485, September.
- repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
- Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1992.
"Future trends in Japan's saving rate and the implications thereof for Japan's external imbalance,"
Japan and the World Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 307-330, April.
- Yuji Horioka, C., 1990. "Future Trends in Japan's Saving Rate and the Implications thereof for Japan's External Imbalance," ISER Discussion Paper 0239, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1989. "Is Japan's saving rate high?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-9.
- Sheetal K. Chand & Albert Jaeger, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 147, International Monetary Fund.
- Horioka, C.Y., 1989. "The Determinants Of Japan'S Saving Rate: The Impact Of The Age Structure Of The Population And Other Factors," ISER Discussion Paper 0189, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10781. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.