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The Impact of Immigration on the Japanese Economy: A multi-country simulation model

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  • SHIMASAWA Manabu
  • OGURO Kazumasa

Abstract

To quantify the impacts of immigration on the Japanese economy, we present a large-scale numerical dynamic equilibrium model with OLG and a total of 16 countries and regions, both those that are industrialized including Japan, the U.S. and EU, and developing countries China, Brazil, the Philippines and Peru. Our simulation results show that immigration will improve the Japanese economy. Specifically, annual immigrant flows of 150,000 will dramatically improve the welfare of current and future generations. On the other hand, we can't expect a significant long-run improvement in welfare solely by implementing a policy increasing the consumption tax. The results indicate that substantially increased inflows of working-age immigrants would alleviate the need for future fiscal reform and also help to dramatically reduce the public pension burden on the working generations.

Suggested Citation

  • SHIMASAWA Manabu & OGURO Kazumasa, 2009. "The Impact of Immigration on the Japanese Economy: A multi-country simulation model," Discussion papers 09020, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:09020
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    Cited by:

    1. Hisahiro Naito, 2014. "Pareto-improving Immigration and Its Effect on Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," Working Papers e081, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    2. Yamamura, Eiji, 2014. "Is body mass human capital in sumo? Outcome of globalization and formation of human capital in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 53-71.
    3. Selahattin İmrohoroğlu & Sagiri Kitao & Tomoaki Yamada, 2017. "Can Guest Workers Solve Japan'S Fiscal Problems?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1287-1307, July.
    4. Akira Okamoto, 2013. "Welfare Analysis of Pension Reforms in an Ageing Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 64(4), pages 452-483, December.
    5. Jinno, Masatoshi, 2018. "Calculating the net benefi t of admitting immigrants under the de fined-return-ratio pay-as-you-go pension system," MPRA Paper 84931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Akira Okamoto, 2013. "Simulating Public Pension Reforms in an Aging Japan: Welfare Analysis with LSRA Transfers," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 597-632, September.
    7. Hisahiro Naito, 2013. "Pareto-improving Immigration and Its Effect on Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," Tsukuba Economics Working Papers 2013-004, Economics, Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba.
    8. Hisahiro Naito, 2014. "Pareto-improving Immigration in the Presence of Social Security," Tsukuba Economics Working Papers 2014-003, Economics, Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba.
    9. Hisahiro Naito, 2015. "Immigration as a Policy Tool for the Double Burden Problem of Prefunding Pay-as-you-go Social Security System," Tsukuba Economics Working Papers 2015-002, Economics, Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba.

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