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Simulating Public Pension Reforms in an Aging Japan: Welfare Analysis with LSRA Transfers


  • Akira Okamoto

    (Okayama University)


This paper explores the effect of different public pension schemes on economic welfare, and intergenerational and intragenerational equity. Besides the benchmark case based on the 2004 public pension reform, the paper considers two alternative cases: first, the financing of the basic pension benefit by a consumption tax, and second, the elimination of the earningsrelated pension benefit. To distinguish potential efficiency gains or losses from possibly offsetting changes in the welfare of different generations, the paper introduces the Lump Sum Redistribution Authority (LSRA). The simulation results suggest that although consumption tax financing of only a basic pension increases economic output by inducing capital formation, even with LSRA transfers it may not bring about a Pareto improvement.

Suggested Citation

  • Akira Okamoto, 2013. "Simulating Public Pension Reforms in an Aging Japan: Welfare Analysis with LSRA Transfers," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 597-632, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:mof:journl:ppr023b

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Toshihiro Ihori & Ryuta Ray Kato & Masumi Kawade & Shun-ichiro Bessho, 2005. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in an Aging Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-046, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    2. R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2006. "Saving and interest rates in Japan: Why they have fallen and why they will remain low," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    3. Brunner, Johann K., 1996. "Transition from a pay-as-you-go to a fully funded pension system: The case of differing individuals and intragenerational fairness," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 131-146, April.
    4. Seidman, Laurence S, 1983. "Taxes in a Life Cycle Growth Model with Bequests and Inheritances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 437-441, June.
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    6. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters,in: The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Shimasawa, Manabu & Oguro, Kazumasa, 2010. "Impact of immigration on the Japanese economy: A multi-country simulation model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 586-602, December.
    8. R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2009. "The Saving Rate In Japan: Why It Has Fallen And Why It Will Remain Low," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(1), pages 291-321, February.
    9. Akira Okamoto, 2005. "Simulating fundamental tax reforms in an aging Japan," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 163-185.
    10. Ihori, Toshihiro & Kato, Ryuta Ray & Kawade, Masumi & Bessho, Shun-ichiro, 2011. "Health insurance reform and economic growth: Simulation analysis in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 227-239.
    11. Auerbach, Alan J. & Lee, Ronald, 2011. "Welfare and generational equity in sustainable unfunded pension systems," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1-2), pages 16-27, February.
    12. Yamada, Tomoaki, 2011. "A politically feasible social security reform with a two-tier structure," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 199-224, September.
    13. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2005. "Consumption Taxes and Economic Efficiency with Idiosyncratic Wage Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 1088-1115, October.
    14. Akira Okamoto, 2007. "Optimal Tax Combination in an Aging Japan," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 91-114.
    15. Kazumasa, Oguro & Junichiro, Takahata & Manabu, Shimasawa, 2009. "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden: OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility," MPRA Paper 16132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item


    Aging population; Pension reform; Consumption tax; Pareto improvement; Simulation analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models


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