Saving and Interest Rates in Japan: Why They Have Fallen and Why They Will Remain Low
This paper quantifies the role of alternative shocks in accounting for the recent declines in Japanese saving rates and interest rates and provides some projections about their future course. We consider four distinct sources of variation in saving rates and real interest rates: changes in fertility rates, changes in survival rates, changes in technology and changes in uninsurable labor income risk. The emprical relevance of these factors is explored using a computable dynamic OLG model. We find that the combined effects of demographics and slower total factor productivity growth successfully explain both the levels and the magnitudes of the declines in the saving rate and the after-tax real interest rate during the 1990s. Model simulations indicate that the Japanese savings puzzle is over.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Hongo 7-3-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033|
Web page: http://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/english/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Charles Yuji Horioka & Hideki Fujisaki & Wako Watanabe & Takatsugu Kouno, 2000.
"Are Americans More Altruistic than the Japanese? A U.S.-Japan Comparison of Saving and Bequest Motives,"
NBER Working Papers
7463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- C. Y. Horioka & H. Fujisaki & W. Watanabe & T. Kouno, 2000. "Are Americans More Altruistic than the Japanese? A U.S.-Japan Comparison of Saving and Bequest Motives," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31.
- Hayashi, Fumio & Ito, Takatoshi & Slemrod, Joel, 1988. "Housing finance imperfections, taxation, and private saving: A comparative simulation analysis of the United States and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 215-238, September.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1995.
"Is the Japanese Extended Family Altruistically Linked? A Test based on Engel Curves,"
NBER Working Papers
5033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hayashi, Fumio, 1995. "Is the Japanese Extended Family Altruistically Linked? A Test Based on Engel Curves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 661-74, June.
- Selo Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen & Ayse Imrohoroglu, 2005.
"Japanese Saving Rate,"
2005 Meeting Papers
747, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Hansen, G.D., 1991.
"The Cyclical and Secular Behavior of the Labor Input : Comparing Efficiency Units and Hours Worked,"
36, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- Hansen, G D, 1993. "The Cyclical and Secular Behaviour of the Labour Input: Comparing Efficiency Units and Hours Worked," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 71-80, Jan.-Marc.
- Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1995.
"Is Japan's Household Saving Rate Really High?,"
Review of Income and Wealth,
International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 41(4), pages 373-97, December.
- Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen, 2006. "The Japanese Saving Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1850-1858, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf028. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.