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Financing Health Care in Japan: The Impact of an Aging Population

  • Tomoaki Yamada

    (Meiji University)

  • Minchung Hsu


  • Gary D. Hansen


This is a description of some work in progress aimed at providing a quantitative analysis of the impact of population aging in Japan on financing its National Health Insurance program. We construct a general equilibrium life-cycle economy that is used to study the impact of an aging population (an increased dependency ratio and increased per capita medical expenditures) on household's work and savings behavior, as well as on aggregate output and welfare. In particular, taking 2010 as an initial starting point, we calculate the transition path predicted by our model as the population structure changes and medical costs increase, using values for 2055 to construct a terminal steady state. We also evaluate various policy alternatives designed to lessen the negative impact of aging on the economy.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2011 Meeting Papers with number 717.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:717
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Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA

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  1. Ludwig, Alexander & Krüger, Dirk, 2006. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of return to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Papers 07-11, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
  2. Eric French, 2005. "The Effects of Health, Wealth, and Wages on Labour Supply and Retirement Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 395-427.
  3. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
  4. Abe, Naohito & Yamada, Tomoaki, 2009. "Nonlinear income variance profiles and consumption inequality over the life cycle," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 344-366, September.
  5. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2005. "Consumption Taxes and Economic Efficiency with Idiosyncratic Wage Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 1088-1115, October.
  6. Karsten Jeske & Sagiri Kitao, 2007. "U.S. tax policy and health insurance demand: can a regressive policy improve welfare?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2007-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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