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Financing Health Care in Japan: The Impact of an Aging Population

  • Tomoaki Yamada

    (Meiji University)

  • Minchung Hsu

    (GRIPS)

  • Gary D. Hansen

    (UCLA)

This is a description of some work in progress aimed at providing a quantitative analysis of the impact of population aging in Japan on financing its National Health Insurance program. We construct a general equilibrium life-cycle economy that is used to study the impact of an aging population (an increased dependency ratio and increased per capita medical expenditures) on household's work and savings behavior, as well as on aggregate output and welfare. In particular, taking 2010 as an initial starting point, we calculate the transition path predicted by our model as the population structure changes and medical costs increase, using values for 2055 to construct a terminal steady state. We also evaluate various policy alternatives designed to lessen the negative impact of aging on the economy.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2011 Meeting Papers with number 717.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:717
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  1. R.Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2006. "Saving and interest rates in Japan: Why they have fallen and why they will remain low," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  2. Abe, Naohito & Yamada, Tomoaki, 2009. "Nonlinear income variance profiles and consumption inequality over the life cycle," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 344-366, September.
  3. Orazio Attanasio & Sagiri Kitao & Giovanni L. Violante, 2010. "Financing Medicare: A General Equilibrium Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 333-366 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Karsten Jeske & Sagiri Kitao, 2007. "U.S. tax policy and health insurance demand: can a regressive policy improve welfare?," Working Paper 2007-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John B. Jones, 2010. "Why Do the Elderly Save? The Role of Medical Expenses," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(1), pages 39-75, 02.
  6. Iwamoto, Yasushi & Kohara, Miki & Saito, Makoto, 2010. "On the consumption insurance effects of long-term care insurance in Japan: Evidence from micro-level household data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 99-115, March.
  7. Attanasio Orazio P. & Gianluca Violante, 1999. "Global Demographic Trends and Social Security Reform," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  8. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Sagiri Kitao, 2010. "Social Security, Benefit Claiming and Labor Force Participation: A Quantitative General Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2010-02, Center for Retirement Research, revised Mar 2010.
  9. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Nao Sudo, 2010. "Productivity and Fiscal Policy in Japan: Short Term Forecasts from the Standard Growth Model," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-23, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  10. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2005. "Consumption Taxes and Economic Efficiency with Idiosyncratic Wage Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 1088-1115, October.
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