The optimal size of Japan's public pensions: An analysis considering the risks of longevity and volatility of return on assets
There are two main pension systems: the Defined Benefit (DB) pension system and the Defined Contribution (DC) pension system. Each system has advantages and disadvantages. This paper investigates to what degree Japan should maintain a DB public pension system which offers the benefit of sharing risk and to what degree Japan must adopt a DC pension system to eliminate intergenerational imbalance. The risks of longevity and volatility of return on assets are incorporated into the simulation model. As a result of the simulation analysis, a replacement rate of 20-30% would be adequate for future generations if the expected return on assets and the wage growth rate are at the same level. Meanwhile, if the former is 2% points larger than the latter, a replacement rate of 0% or full-scale privatization would be desirable.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467-467.
- Henning Bohn, 2001.
"Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty: The Risk-Sharing Properties of Alternative Policies,"
NBER Chapters,in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 203-246
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Henning Bohn, 1999. "Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty: The Risk Sharing Properties of Alternative Policies," NBER Working Papers 7030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ranguelova, Elena & Feldstein, Martin, 2001. "Individual Risk in an Investment-Based Social Security System," Scholarly Articles 2797440, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Yukinobu Kitamura & Noriyuki Takayama, 1999. "Lessons from Generational Accounting in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 171-175, May.
- Zvi Bodie & Alan J. Marcus & Robert C. Merton, 1988. "Defined Benefit versus Defined Contribution Pension Plans: What are the Real Trade-offs?," NBER Chapters,in: Pensions in the U.S. Economy, pages 139-162 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zvi Bodie & Alan J. Marcus & Robert C. Merton, 1985. "Defined Benefit versus Defined Contribution Pension Plans: What are the Real Tradeoffs?," NBER Working Papers 1719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Feldstein & Elena Ranguelova, 2001. "Individual Risk in an Investment-Based Social Security System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1116-1125, September.
- Martin Feldstein & Elena Ranguelova, 2001. "Individual Risk in an Investment-Based Social Security System," NBER Working Papers 8074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Noriyuki Takayama & Yukinobu Kitamura & Hiroshi Yoshida, 1999. "Generational Accounting in Japan," NBER Chapters,in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 447-470 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Huggett & Gustavo Ventura, 1999. "On the Distributional Effects of Social Security Reform," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 498-531, July.
- Hugett, M. & Ventura, G., 1997. "On the Distributional Effects of Social Security Reform," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9710, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Mark Huggett & Gustavo Ventura, 1998. "On the Distributional Effects of Social Security Reform," Working Papers 9801, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
- Sanchez-Marcos, Virginia & Sanchez-Martin, Alfonso R., 2006. "Can social security be welfare improving when there is demographic uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1615-1646.
- Virginia Sanchez-Marcos & Alfonso Sanchez Martin, 2004. "Can Social Security be welfare improving when there is demographic uncertainty?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 163, Society for Computational Economics.
- David Bradford, 1991. "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brad91-1.
- Kato, Ryuta, 1998. "Transition to an Aging Japan: Public Pension, Savings, and Capital Taxation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 204-231, September.
- Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
- Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2005. "Consumption Taxes and Economic Efficiency with Idiosyncratic Wage Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 1088-1115, October.
- Seki Asano & Takashi Fukushima, 2006. "Some Empirical Evidence On Demand System And Optimal Commodity Taxation," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(1), pages 50-68.
- Diamond, P. A., 1977. "A framework for social security analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 275-298, December.
- Bessho, Shun-ichiro & Hayashi, Masayoshi, 2005. "Economic studies of taxation in Japan: The case of personal income taxes," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 956-972, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:22:y:2010:i:1:p:31-39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.