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Paying for the FILP

In: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan

Author

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  • Takero Doi
  • Takeo Hoshi

Abstract

This paper examines the financial health of the Fiscal Investment and Loan Program (FILP) as of the end of March 2001. We study the financial conditions of FILP recipients, which include public corporations and local governments. We find many are de facto insolvent. Our estimates suggest as much as 75% of the FILP loans are bad. The expected losses are estimated to be about ?75 trillion (over 15% of GDP). We also studied the effects of the FILP reform of April 2001, which tries to introduce market discipline in allocation of FILP funds. No significant changes in financial flow are detected, yet. The financial market seems to differentiate the newly introduced FILP agency bonds, which are supposed to without government guarantee, from government guaranteed bonds. It is too early to tell, however, whether the financial market will become an effective monitor of FILP agencies.
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Suggested Citation

  • Takero Doi & Takeo Hoshi, 2003. "Paying for the FILP," NBER Chapters,in: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, pages 37-70 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:9572
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey I. Bernstein & M. Ishaq Nadiri, 1989. "Research and Development and Intra-industry Spillovers: An Empirical Application of Dynamic Duality," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 249-267.
    2. Iwamoto, Yasushi, 2001. "Fiscal Investment and Loan Program―A Perspective on Government Interventions in the Japanese Financial Sector―," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 52(1), pages 2-15, January.
    3. Iwamoto, Yasushi, 2002. "The Fiscal Investment and Loan Program in Transition," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 583-604, December.
    4. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 2004. "Corporate Financing and Governance in Japan: The Road to the Future," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582481, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sawada, Michiru, 2013. "Measuring the effect of postal saving privatization on the Japanese banking industry: Evidence from the 2005 general election," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 967-983.
    2. Isabelle Joumard & Tadashi Yokoyama, 2005. "Getting the Most Out of Public Sector Decentralisation in Japan," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 416, OECD Publishing.
    3. Robert Dekle, 2003. "The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation and an Aging Population," NBER Chapters,in: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, pages 71-88 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Dekle, Robert, 2004. "Financing consumption in an aging Japan: The role of foreign capital inflows and immigration," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 506-527, December.
    5. Oshio, Takashi, 2004. "Social security and trust fund management," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 528-550, December.
    6. Francisco Buera & Benjamin Moll & Yongseok Shin, 2013. "Well-Intended Policies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 216-230, January.
    7. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2012. "Defying Gravity: How Long Will Japanese Government Bond Prices Remain High?," NBER Working Papers 18287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Sumner J. La Croix & Akihiko Kawaura, 2005. "Institutional Change in Japan: Theory, Evidence, and Reflections," Economics Study Area Working Papers 82, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    9. Masami Imai, 2009. "Political Determinants of Government Loans in Japan," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(1), pages 41-70, February.
    10. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2004. "Happy News from the Dismal Science: Reassessing the Japanese Fiscal Policy and Sustainability," NBER Working Papers 10988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Iwaisako, Tokuo, 2012. "Saving-Investment Balance and Fiscal Sustainability of Japan: A View from the JGB Market," Discussion Paper Series 568, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    12. Uwe Vollmer & Diemo Dietrich & Ralf bebenroth, 2009. "Behold the 'Behemoth'. The privatization of Japan Post Bank," Discussion Paper Series 236, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    13. Muraközy, László, 2015. "A fejlesztő állam megszületése, virágzása és hanyatlása Japánban. A racionális szamurájoktól az abenomicsig
      [The birth, flowering and decline of the Japanese developmental state. From rational samu
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 172-199.
    14. Imai, Masami, 2012. "Local economic effects of a government-owned depository institution: Evidence from a natural experiment in Japan," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-22.
    15. Barseghyan, Levon, 2010. "Non-performing loans, prospective bailouts, and Japan's slowdown," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 873-890, October.
    16. Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2004. "Japan's Financial Crisis and Economic Stagnation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    17. Masami Imai, 2008. "Crowding-Out Effects of a Government-Owned Depository Institution: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Japan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2008-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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