The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation and an Aging Population
Japan's deteriorating fiscal situation has attracted international attention. I assess what current Japanese government policies mean for the future of public debt and the economy in general, given the inevitable aging of the population. I review how Japan got into this current fiscal mess, and then perform an analysis of some debt dynamics. With unchanged fiscal policies, Japan's public debt will rise to between 260% and 380% of GDP in 2030, and to between 700% and 1300% in 2040 -- clearly unsustainable levels. For the debt to be sustainable, significant increases in taxes, or cuts in government spending are necessary.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Blomstrom, Magnus et al. (eds.) Structural impediments to growth in Japan NBER Conference Report series. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 2003.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hiroko Ishii & Erika Wada, 1998. "Local Government Spending: Solving the Mystery of Japanese Fiscal Packages," Working Paper Series WP98-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Takero Doi & Takeo Hoshi, 2002.
"Paying for the FILP,"
NBER Working Papers
9385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ishi, Hiromitsu, 2000. "Making Fiscal Policy in Japan: Economic Effects and Institutional Settings," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199240715, July.
- Mitsuhiro Fukao, 2002.
"Financial Sector Profitability and Double-Gearing,"
NBER Working Papers
9368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ono, Hiroshi & Rebick, Marcus, 2002. "Impediments to the Productive Employment of Labor in Japan," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 500, Stockholm School of Economics.
- David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990.
"An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9367. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.