IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation and an Aging Population

Author Info

  • Robert Dekle

Abstract

Japan's deteriorating fiscal situation has attracted international attention. I assess what current Japanese government policies mean for the future of public debt and the economy in general, given the inevitable aging of the population. I review how Japan got into this current fiscal mess, and then perform an analysis of some debt dynamics. With unchanged fiscal policies, Japan's public debt will rise to between 260% and 380% of GDP in 2030, and to between 700% and 1300% in 2040 -- clearly unsustainable levels. For the debt to be sustainable, significant increases in taxes, or cuts in government spending are necessary.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9367.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9367.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Dec 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Blomstrom, Magnus et al. (eds.) Structural impediments to growth in Japan NBER Conference Report series. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 2003.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9367
Note: EFG PE
Contact details of provider: Postal:
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.

Phone: 617-868-3900
Web page: http://www.nber.org
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
  • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Takero Doi & Takeo Hoshi, 2002. "Paying for the FILP," NBER Working Papers 9385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Takero Doi & Takeo Hoshi, 2003. "Paying for the FILP," NBER Chapters, in: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, pages 37-70 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mitsuhiro Fukao, 2003. "Financial Sector Profitability and Double-Gearing," NBER Chapters, in: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, pages 9-36 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ono, Hiroshi & Rebick, Marcus, 2002. "Impediments to the Productive Employment of Labor in Japan," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 500, Stockholm School of Economics.
  4. Hiroko Ishii & Erika Wada, 1998. "Local Government Spending: Solving the Mystery of Japanese Fiscal Packages," Working Paper Series WP98-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  5. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  7. Ishi, Hiromitsu, 2000. "Making Fiscal Policy in Japan: Economic Effects and Institutional Settings," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199240715, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as in new window


Cited by:

  1. Auerbach, Alan J. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 2012. "The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt84s7d8c8, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  2. Kazuo Ogawa & Elmer Sterken & Ichiro Tokutsu, 2016. "Public Debt, Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate:A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries," ISER Discussion Paper 0955, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  3. Ogawa, Kazuo & Imai, Kentaro, 2014. "Why do commercial banks hold government bonds? The case of Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 201-216.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9367. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.