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The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation and an Aging Population

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Listed author(s):
  • Robert Dekle

Abstract

Japan's deteriorating fiscal situation has attracted international attention. I assess what current Japanese government policies mean for the future of public debt and the economy in general, given the inevitable aging of the population. I review how Japan got into this current fiscal mess, and then perform an analysis of some debt dynamics. With unchanged fiscal policies, Japan's public debt will rise to between 260% and 380% of GDP in 2030, and to between 700% and 1300% in 2040 -- clearly unsustainable levels. For the debt to be sustainable, significant increases in taxes, or cuts in government spending are necessary.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9367.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9367.

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Date of creation: Dec 2002
Publication status: published as Blomstrom, Magnus et al. (eds.) Structural impediments to growth in Japan NBER Conference Report series. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 2003.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9367
Note: EFG PE
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
  • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

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  1. Ono, Hiroshi & Rebick, Marcus, 2002. "Impediments to the Productive Employment of Labor in Japan," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 500, Stockholm School of Economics.
  2. Takero Doi & Takeo Hoshi, 2003. "Paying for the FILP," NBER Chapters,in: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, pages 37-70 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mitsuhiro Fukao, 2003. "Financial Sector Profitability and Double-Gearing," NBER Chapters,in: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, pages 9-36 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ishi, Hiromitsu, 2000. "Making Fiscal Policy in Japan: Economic Effects and Institutional Settings," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199240715.
  5. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
  6. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Hiroko Ishii & Erika Wada, 1998. "Local Government Spending: Solving the Mystery of Japanese Fiscal Packages," Working Paper Series WP98-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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Cited by:

  1. Alan J. Auerbach & Maurice Obstfeld, 2005. "The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 110-137, March.
  2. Ogawa, Kazuo & Imai, Kentaro, 2014. "Why do commercial banks hold government bonds? The case of Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 201-216.
  3. Kazuo Ogawa & Elmer Sterken & Ichiro Tokutsu, 2016. "Public Debt, Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate:A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries," ISER Discussion Paper 0955, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

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