IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v52y2020i12p1377-1394.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Public Debt, Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate: A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Jacobs
  • Kazuo Ogawa
  • Elmer Sterken
  • Ichiro Tokutsu

Abstract

We investigate the causal relationship between public debt ratios and economic growth rates for 31 EU and OECD countries. We estimate a panel VAR model that incorporates the long-term real interest rate on government bonds as a vehicle to transmit shocks in both the public debt to GDP ratio and the economic growth rate. We find no causal link from public debt to growth, irrespective of the levels of the public debt ratio. Rather, we find a causal relationship from growth to public debt. In high-debt countries, the direct negative impact of growth on public debt is enhanced by an increase in the long-term real interest rate, which in its turn decreases interest-sensitive demand and leads to a further increase in the public debt ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Jacobs & Kazuo Ogawa & Elmer Sterken & Ichiro Tokutsu, 2020. "Public Debt, Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate: A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(12), pages 1377-1394, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:12:p:1377-1394
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1673301
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2019.1673301
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2019.1673301?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
    3. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.
    4. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
    5. Doi, Takero & Hoshi, Takeo & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2011. "Japanese government debt and sustainability of fiscal policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 414-433.
    6. Dreger, Christian & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2013. "Does euro area membership affect the relation between GDP growth and public debt?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 481-486.
    7. Sakuragawa, Masaya & Hosono, Kaoru, 2011. "Fiscal sustainability in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 434-446.
    8. Mr. Emanuele Baldacci & Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar, 2010. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 2010/184, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Blomstrom, Magnus & Corbett, Jennifer & Hayashi, Fumio & Kashyap, Anil (ed.), 2003. "Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226060217, March.
    10. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1392-1405.
    11. Lof, Matthijs & Malinen, Tuomas, 2014. "Does sovereign debt weaken economic growth? A panel VAR analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 403-407.
    12. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lu, Biao, 2001. "Consistent model and moment selection procedures for GMM estimation with application to dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 123-164, March.
    13. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
    14. Michael R.M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of Panel Vector Autoregression in Stata: a Package of Programs," Working Papers 201602, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    15. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    16. Ito, Arata & Watanabe, Tsutomu & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2011. "Fiscal policy switching in Japan, the US, and the UK," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 380-413.
    17. Robert Dekle, 2003. "The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation and an Aging Population," NBER Chapters, in: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, pages 71-88, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    19. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    20. Takero Doi & Toshihiro Ihori, 2009. "The Public Sector in Japan," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12752.
    21. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    22. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2012. "Defying Gravity: How Long Will Japanese Government Bond Prices Remain High?," NBER Working Papers 18287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2013. "Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 809-821.
    25. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    26. Puente-Ajovín, Miguel & Sanso-Navarro, Marcos, 2015. "Granger causality between debt and growth: Evidence from OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 66-77.
    27. Magnus Blomström & Jennifer Corbett & Fumio Hayashi & Anil Kashyap, 2003. "Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number blom03-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yixuan Duan & Min Guo & Yixuan Huang, 2022. "Leverage of Local State-Owned Enterprises, Implicit Contingent Liabilities of Government and Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Ytallo Brito, 2021. "The link between public debt and investment: an empirical assessment from emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(50), pages 5864-5876, October.
    3. Yu HSING, 2020. "On the relationship between economic growth and government debt for Bulgaria. Test of the Reinhart-Rogoff hypothesis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(625), W), pages 187-194, Winter.
    4. Nikolaos Filippakis & Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos, 2021. "Public Debt and Economic Growth: A Review of Contemporary Literature," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 19(1), pages 33-50.
    5. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Bastos, Júlio Cesar Albuquerque & de Oliveira, Ana Jordânia, 2019. "Fiscal transparency, government effectiveness and government spending efficiency: Some international evidence based on panel data approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 211-225.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil & Luo, Yun, 2018. "Revisiting the bi-directional causality between debt and growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-74.
    2. Antonakakis, Nikolaos, 2014. "Sovereign Debt and Economic Growth Revisited: The Role of (Non-)Sustainable Debt Thresholds," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 187, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    3. Carsten Colombier & Christian Breuer, 2020. "Debt and growth: historical evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2594-2609.
    4. Law, Siong Hook & Ng, Chee Hung & Kutan, Ali M. & Law, Zhi Kei, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth in developing countries: Nonlinearity and threshold analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 26-40.
    5. Vicente Esteve & Cecilio Tamarit, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth in Spain, 1851–2013," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(2), pages 219-249, May.
    6. Grobéty, Mathieu, 2018. "Government debt and growth: The role of liquidity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-22.
    7. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Does Public Debt Impact Economic Growth in Zambia? An Ardl-Bounds Testing Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(4), pages 53-73, October-D.
    8. Yannis Dafermos, 2015. "The ‘other half’ of the public debt–economic growth relationship: a note on Reinhart and Rogoff," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 20-28, April.
    9. Bitar, Nicholas & Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2018. "Were Reinhart and Rogoff right?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 614-620.
    10. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    11. Markus Ahlborn & Rainer Schweickert, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth – economic systems matter," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 373-403, April.
    12. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2017. "Heterogeneity in the debt-growth nexus: Evidence from EMU countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 470-486.
    13. Puente-Ajovín, Miguel & Sanso-Navarro, Marcos, 2015. "Granger causality between debt and growth: Evidence from OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 66-77.
    14. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
    15. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    16. João Basilio Pereima & Manuela Merki & Fernando Motta Correia, 2016. "Economic Growth And Public Debt: Addressing Unobserved Heterogeneity," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 101, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    17. Haytham Y.M. Ewaida, 2017. "The Impact of Sovereign Debt on Growth: An Empirical Study on GIIPS versus JUUSD Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 607-633.
    18. Kummer-Noormamode, Sabina, 2018. "The Relationship between Public Debt and Economic Growth: Nonlinearity and Country-Specificity," MPRA Paper 98075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2015. "Government Debt and Economic Growth – Decomposing the Cause and Effect Relationship," MPRA Paper 64105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. David Greenlaw & James D. Hamilton & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2013. "Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 19297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:12:p:1377-1394. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.