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Fertility and the real exchange rate

Author

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  • Andrew K. Rose
  • Saktiandi Supaat
  • Jacob Braude

Abstract

We use a quinquennial data set covering 87 countries between 1975 and 2005 to investigate empirically the relationship between fertility and the real effective exchange rate. Theoretically, a country experiencing a decline in its fertility rate can be expected to experience a real depreciation. We test and confirm this hypothesis, controlling for a number of other potential determinants. We find a statistically significant and robust link between fertility and the exchange rate. Our point-estimate is that a decline in the fertility rate of one child per woman is associated with a depreciation of approximately 15% in the real effective exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew K. Rose & Saktiandi Supaat & Jacob Braude, 2009. "Fertility and the real exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 496-518, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:42:y:2009:i:2:p:496-518
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5982.2009.01517.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Grisse, Christian & Scheidegger, Fabian, 2021. "Covariability of real exchange rates and fundamentals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    2. Shuang Zheng & Xiaohui Liu & Yihe Zuo, 2026. "Environmental regulation, pollution emissions and the current account," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 162(1), pages 241-283, February.
    3. Jean-François Carpantier, 2021. "Commodity Prices in Empirical Research," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 199-227, Springer.
    4. Sangyup Choi & Chaewon Kim & Inhwan So, 2026. "Demographic Changes and Real Exchange Rates: Future of an Aging Economy," Working papers 2026rwp-285, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    5. Xiaohui Liu & Zhihao Zhou & Jing Zhang, 2023. "Longevity, Fertility, and the Real Exchange Rate," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(2), pages 26-57, March.
    6. Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
    7. Zvi Eckstein & Amit Friedman, 2011. "The equilibrium real exchange rate for Israel," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Capital flows, commodity price movements and foreign exchange intervention, volume 57, pages 201-213, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    9. Konrad Adler & Christian Grisse, 2014. "Real exchange rates and fundamentals: robustness across alternative model specifications," Working Papers 2014-07, Swiss National Bank.
    10. Montecino, Juan Antonio, 2018. "Capital controls and the real exchange rate: Do controls promote disequilibria?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 80-95.
    11. Pabitra Kumar Jena & Raghav Sharma & Tania Dehury & Sasmita Nayak, 2024. "Impact of Monetary Policy Transmission on the Demographic in India - A Structural VAR Approach," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 4(3), pages 1-5.
    12. Matthias Gubler & Christoph Sax, 2019. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect reversed: new evidence from OECD countries," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-21, December.
    13. Yukio Fukumoto & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2019. "How Different are demographic impacts on trade openness by geographic region?:Findings from Europe,Asia,America,and Africa," Discussion Papers 1912, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    14. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 183-206, April.
    15. Bodart, Vincent & Carpantier, Jean-François, 2016. "Real exchange rates and skills," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 305-319.
    16. Kamrul Hassan & Ruhul Salim, 2011. "The linkage between relative population growth and purchasing power parity," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(2), pages 154-169, July.
    17. Tien, Morel, 2024. "Intra-African migration and the real exchange rate," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    18. Konrad Adler & Christian Grisse, 2017. "Thousands of BEERs: Take your pick," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 1078-1104, November.
    19. Calmfors, Lars, 2025. "Pattern Bargaining as a Means to Coordinate Wages in the Nordic Countries," Working Paper Series 1517, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    20. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2008. "Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Yuan and Other Currencies," NBER Working Papers 14168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Wen-Yi Chen, 2017. "Demographic structure and monetary policy effectiveness: evidence from Taiwan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(6), pages 2521-2544, November.
    22. Yukio Fukumoto & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2017. "Age Structure and Trade Openness: An Empirical Investigation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(6), pages 1247-1263, June.
    23. Max Groneck & Christoph Kaufmann, 2014. "Relative Sectoral Prices and Population Ageing: A Common Trend," Working Paper Series in Economics 69, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    24. Max Groneck & Christoph Kaufmann, 2017. "Determinants of Relative Sectoral Prices: The Role of Demographic Change," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(3), pages 319-347, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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