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The Impact of Population Ageing on the Czech Economy

  • Jan Babecky
  • Kamil Dybczak

The Czech Republic is facing a population ageing phenomenon. In addition, its demographic structure is expected to change dramatically over the next 50 years. We apply a stylised overlapping generation model in order to analyse the potential effects of the expected demographic changes on aggregate economic performance taking into account alternative fiscal policy set-ups. We provide a rough estimate of the amendments necessary on the revenue and expenditure sides in order to keep the current system financially balanced. We also discuss the implications for the development of other economic variables. In particular, we separately simulate future developments in the cases of adjustment in either the contribution rate or the value of public benefit. In addition, we demonstrate that parametric changes, such as an increase in the statutory retirement age, cannot eliminate the impact of the deterioration in the demographic structure on the course of the economy.

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Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2009/1.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2009/1
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  1. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  14. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
  15. Rasmussen, Tobias N. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2004. "Modeling overlapping generations in a complementarity format," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1383-1409, April.
  16. M De Nardi & S Imrohoroglu & TJ Sargent, 2001. "Saving and pension reform in general equilibrium models," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 20-39, Spring.
  17. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  18. Vladimir Bezdek & Kamil Dybczak & Ales Krejdl, 2003. "Czech Fiscal Policy: Introductory Analysis," Working Papers 2003/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  19. Alan G. Ahearne & William L. Griever & Francis E. Warnock, 2000. "Information costs and home bias: an analysis of U.S. holdings of foreign equities," International Finance Discussion Papers 691, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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