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The Impact of Population Ageing on the Czech Economy

  • Jan Babecky
  • Kamil Dybczak

The Czech Republic is facing a population ageing phenomenon. In addition, its demographic structure is expected to change dramatically over the next 50 years. We apply a stylised overlapping generation model in order to analyse the potential effects of the expected demographic changes on aggregate economic performance taking into account alternative fiscal policy set-ups. We provide a rough estimate of the amendments necessary on the revenue and expenditure sides in order to keep the current system financially balanced. We also discuss the implications for the development of other economic variables. In particular, we separately simulate future developments in the cases of adjustment in either the contribution rate or the value of public benefit. In addition, we demonstrate that parametric changes, such as an increase in the statutory retirement age, cannot eliminate the impact of the deterioration in the demographic structure on the course of the economy.

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Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2009/1.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2009/1
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  1. Miles, David K, 1997. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Catalán, Mario & Guajardo, Jaime & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2010. "Coping with Spain's aging: retirement rules and incentives," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(04), pages 549-581, October.
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  4. Willem H. Buiter, 1996. "Generational Accounts, Aggregate Savings, and Intergenerational Distribution," IMF Working Papers 96/76, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Domeij, David & Flodén, Martin, 2003. "Population Aging and International Capital Flows," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 539, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 21 Oct 2003.
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  7. Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research.
  8. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
  9. Axel Borsch-Supan & Lothar Essig, 2003. "Household Saving in Germany: Results of the first SAVE study," NBER Working Papers 9902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Kamil Dybczak, 2006. "Generational Accounts in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2006/2, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  12. M De Nardi & S Imrohoroglu & TJ Sargent, 2001. "Saving and pension reform in general equilibrium models," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 20-39, Spring.
  13. Stefan W. Schmitz, 2007. "Demographic Change, Bank Strategy and Financial Stability," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 13, pages 98-114.
  14. Rasmussen, Tobias N. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2004. "Modeling overlapping generations in a complementarity format," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1383-1409, April.
  15. Vladimir Bezdek & Kamil Dybczak & Ales Krejdl, 2003. "Czech Fiscal Policy: Introductory Analysis," Working Papers 2003/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  16. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  17. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
  18. Kenneth R. French & James M. Poterba, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 3609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
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