IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cmn/journl/y2012i4p1-30.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pension Reforms in an Aging Society: A Fully Displayed Cohort Model

Author

Listed:
  • Andras Simonovits

    (Hungarian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

We fully display a cohort model of an economy with an aging population, taking into account complications such as varying household size, habit formation, inheritance and credit constraints. Filling the model with numbers, we are able to compare different pension reforms: 1. the base run, where the contribution rate bears the entire burden of adjustment; 2. reduced accrual rates, 3. replacing wage indexation with price indexation and 4. raised retirement age. Whether the policy changes are anticipated or not, private reactions widely differ.

Suggested Citation

  • Andras Simonovits, 2012. "Pension Reforms in an Aging Society: A Fully Displayed Cohort Model," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 4, pages 1-30, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cmn:journl:y:2012:i:4:p:1-30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eaco.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/simonovits.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
    2. Richard Blundell & Martin Browning & Costas Meghir, 1994. "Consumer Demand and the Life-Cycle Allocation of Household Expenditures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(1), pages 57-80.
    3. Catalán, Mario & Guajardo, Jaime & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2010. "Coping with Spain's aging: retirement rules and incentives," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 549-581, October.
    4. Heikki Oksanen, 2004. "Public Pensions in the national accounts and public finance targets," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 207, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Mr. Robin Brooks, 2000. "What Will Happen to Financial Markets When the Baby Boomers Retire?," IMF Working Papers 2000/018, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jody Overland & Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June.
    7. Hubbard, R Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1995. "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 360-399, April.
    8. Meier, Volker & Wrede, Matthias, 2010. "Pensions, fertility, and education," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 75-93, January.
    9. Andras Simonovits, 2009. "Pension Reforms in an Aging Society: A Fully Displayed Cohort Model," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0917, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    10. Roel Beetsma & Heikki Oksanen, 2007. "Pension Systems, Ageing and the Stability and Growth Pact," CESifo Working Paper Series 2141, CESifo.
    11. R. Glenn Hubbard & Kenneth L. Judd, 1986. "Liquidity Constraints, Fiscal Policy, and Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 1-60.
    12. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 706-732, August.
    13. John Karl Scholz & Ananth Seshadri & Surachai Khitatrakun, 2006. "Are Americans Saving "Optimally" for Retirement?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(4), pages 607-643, August.
    14. Burkhard Heer & Alfred Maußner, 2024. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 3, number 978-3-031-51681-8, April.
    15. Heikki Oksanen, 2004. "Public Pensions in the National Accounts and Public Finance Targets," CESifo Working Paper Series 1214, CESifo.
    16. Molnar, Gyorgy & Simonovits, Andras, 1998. "Expectations, (in)stability and (in)viability in realistic overlapping cohorts models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 303-332, September.
    17. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
    18. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
    19. repec:bla:scandj:v:102:y:2000:i:3:p:419-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    21. Hans Fehr, 2000. "Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 419-443, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zuzana Machova & Igor Kotlan, 2014. "Expenditures on Collective and Individual Services: Discussion on the Classification of Government Expenditures with Regard to their Inclusion into Growth Models," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 4, pages 287-296, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simonovits, András, 2009. "Népességöregedés, tb-nyugdíj és megtakarítás - parametrikus nyugdíjreformok [Population aging, the public pension system, and savings: parametric pension reforms]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 297-321.
    2. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    3. Jan Babecky & Kamil Dybczak, 2009. "The Impact of Population Ageing on the Czech Economy," Working Papers 2009/1, Czech National Bank.
    4. Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research.
    5. C. Lee, 1998. "Life Cycle Savings in the United States, 1900-1990," CPE working papers 0014, University of Chicago - Centre for Population Economics.
    6. Hero Ashman & Seth Neumuller, 2020. "Can Income Differences Explain the Racial Wealth Gap: A Quantitative Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 220-239, January.
    7. Hubbard, R. Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1994. "The importance of precautionary motives in explaining individual and aggregate saving," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 59-125, June.
    8. Wojciech Kopczuk, 2012. "Taxation of Intergenerational Transfers and Wealth," NBER Working Papers 18584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2009. "Quantitative Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Households," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 319-354, May.
    10. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    11. Jan Hagemejer & Marcin Bielecki & Karolina Goraus & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2014. "The Sooner The Better - The Welfare Effects of the Retirement Age Increase Under Various Pension Schemes," EcoMod2014 6868, EcoMod.
    12. Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula & Luigi Pistaferri, 2008. "A Direct Test of The Buffer-Stock Model of Saving," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(6), pages 1186-1210, December.
    13. John Laitner & Daniel Silverman, 2006. "Consumption, Retirement, and Social Security: Evaluating the Efficiency of Reform with a Life-Cycle Model," Working Papers wp142, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    14. Woodland, A., 2016. "Taxation, Pensions, and Demographic Change," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 713-780, Elsevier.
    15. McKenzie, David, 2001. "Consumption Growth in a Booming Economy: Taiwan 1976-96," Center Discussion Papers 28398, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    16. Banks, James & Blundell, Richard & Tanner, Sarah, 1995. "Consumption growth, saving and retirement in the U.K," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 255-275, September.
    17. De Nardi, Mariacristina & Yang, Fang, 2014. "Bequests and heterogeneity in retirement wealth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 182-196.
    18. Siha Lee & Kegon Teng Kok Tan, 2023. "Bequest Motives and the Social Security Notch," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 888-914, December.
    19. Cagetti, Marco & De Nardi, Mariacristina, 2008. "Wealth Inequality: Data And Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(S2), pages 285-313, September.
    20. Hamish Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2010. "Wage Risk and Employment Risk over the Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1432-1467, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cmn:journl:y:2012:i:4:p:1-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Helena Campbelle (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.eaco.eu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.