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Pension Reforms in an Aging Society: A Fully Displayed Cohort Model

  • Andras Simonovits

    ()

    (Hungarian Academy of Sciences)

We fully display a cohort model of an economy with an aging population, taking into account complications such as varying household size, habit formation, inheritance and credit constraints. Filling the model with numbers, we are able to compare different pension reforms: 1. the base run, where the contribution rate bears the entire burden of adjustment; 2. reduced accrual rates, 3. replacing wage indexation with price indexation and 4. raised retirement age. Whether the policy changes are anticipated or not, private reactions widely differ.

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Article provided by European Association Comenius - EACO in its journal DANUBE: Law and Economics Review.

Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 1-30

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Handle: RePEc:cmn:journl:y:2012:i:4:p:1-30
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  1. R. Glenn Hubbard & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1994. "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," NBER Working Papers 4884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Fehr, Hans, 1999. "Pension reform during the demographic transition," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 8, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  3. Jody Overland & Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June.
  4. Volker Meier & Matthias Wrede, 2005. "Pension, Fertility, and Education," CESifo Working Paper Series 1521, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. R. Glenn Hubbard & Kenneth L. Judd, 1986. "Liquidity Constraints, Fiscal Policy, and Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 1-60.
  6. Andras Simonovits, 2012. "Pension Reforms in an Aging Society: A Fully Displayed Cohort Model," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 4, pages 1-30, December.
  7. Molnar, Gyorgy & Simonovits, Andras, 1998. "Expectations, (in)stability and (in)viability in realistic overlapping cohorts models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 303-332, September.
  8. Blundell, Richard & Browning, Martin & Meghir, Costas, 1994. "Consumer Demand and the Life-Cycle Allocation of Household Expenditures," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 57-80, January.
  9. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
  10. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
  11. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 706-32, August.
  12. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  13. Catalán, Mario & Guajardo, Jaime & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2010. "Coping with Spain's aging: retirement rules and incentives," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(04), pages 549-581, October.
  14. Heikki Oksanen, 2004. "Public Pensions in the National Accounts and Public Finance Targets," CESifo Working Paper Series 1214, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Heikki Oksanen, 2004. "Public Pensions in the national accounts and public finance targets," European Economy - Economic Papers 207, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  16. Robin Brooks, 2000. "What Will Happen To Financial Markets When The Baby Boomers Retire?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 92, Society for Computational Economics.
  17. John Karl Scholz & Ananth Seshadri & Surachai Khitatrakun, 2004. "Are Americans Saving "Optimally" for Retirement?," NBER Working Papers 10260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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