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Népességöregedés, tb-nyugdíj és megtakarítás - parametrikus nyugdíjreformok
[Population aging, the public pension system, and savings: parametric pension reforms]

Author

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  • Simonovits, András

Abstract

Az együttélő korosztályok valóság közeli modelljét vizsgáljuk. A népesség öregszik, mert a születésszám csökken, és a születéskor várható élettartam nő. Az időskori jövedelem egyik forrása a tb-nyugdíjrendszer, másik forrása a megtakarítás és az örökség. Az egymást követő korosztályok tagjai életpálya-hasznossági függvényüket maximalizálva határozzák meg fogyasztási pályájukat. Megtöltve a modellt számokkal, képesek vagyunk különböző nyugdíjstratégiákat összehasonlítani, így a következő modellváltozatokat mutatjuk be: 1. az alapfutás, 2. a skálaszorzók csökkentése, 3. a bérindexálás felváltása árindexálással, 4. a nyugdíjkorhatár emelése. Attól függően, hogy a résztvevők a változásokat előre látják, vagy sem, reakcióik különböznek. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C61, D91, E24, J17.

Suggested Citation

  • Simonovits, András, 2009. "Népességöregedés, tb-nyugdíj és megtakarítás - parametrikus nyugdíjreformok [Population aging, the public pension system, and savings: parametric pension reforms]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 297-321.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1088
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simonovits, András & Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor, 2011. "A személyi jövedelemadó reformjának hatása a társadalombiztosítási nyugdíjakra [The impact of personal income tax reform on public pensions]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1029-1044.
    2. Mosolygó, Zsuzsa, 2009. "A népességöregedés, a vagyonzsugorodási hipotézis és a világgazdasági válság [Population ageing, shrinking-wealth hypothesis, and world economic crisis]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 866-880.
    3. Varga, Gergely, 2014. "Demográfiai átmenet, gazdasági növekedés és a nyugdíjrendszer fenntarthatósága [Demographic transition, economic growth, and sustainability of the pension system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1279-1318.
    4. Vékás, Péter & Bajkó, Attila & Maknics, Anita & Tóth, Krisztián, 2015. "A magyar nyugdíjrendszer fenntarthatóságáról [On the sustainability of the Hungarian pension system - the long-term effects of demographic trends]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1229-1257.
    5. Simonovits, András & Gál, Róbert Iván, 2012. "A magyar nyugdíjrendszer éves hozamrátái [Annual rates of return in the Hungarian pension system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 963-987.
    6. Szüle, Borbála, 2013. "Demográfiai hatások és implicit hozamok kapcsolata a nyugdíjrendszerekben [The relationship of demographic effects and implicit returns in pension systems]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 703-721.
    7. Simonovits, András, 2015. "Hossz- és keresztmetszeti egyensúly az életpálya finanszírozásában [Longitudinal and cross-sectional equilibrium in lifetime financing]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 611-620.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income

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