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Assessing the Impact of Fiscal Measures on the Czech Economy

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  • Robert Ambrisko
  • Jan Babecky
  • Jakub Rysanek
  • Vilem Valenta

Abstract

We build a satellite DSGE model to investigate the transmission of fiscal policy to the real economy in the Czech Republic. Our model shares features of the Czech National Bank's current g3 forecasting model (Andrle, Hledik, Kamenik, and Vlcek, 2009), but contains a more comprehensive fiscal sector. Crucial fiscal parameters, related mainly to the specified fiscal rule, are estimated using Bayesian techniques. We calculate a set of fiscal multipliers for individual revenue and expenditure items of the government budget. We find that the largest real GDP fiscal multipliers in the first year are associated with government investment (0.4) and social security contributions paid by employers (0.3), followed by government consumption (0.2).

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Ambrisko & Jan Babecky & Jakub Rysanek & Vilem Valenta, 2012. "Assessing the Impact of Fiscal Measures on the Czech Economy," Working Papers 2012/15, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2012/15
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    Cited by:

    1. Babecký, Jan & Franta, Michal & Ryšánek, Jakub, 2018. "Fiscal policy within the DSGE-VAR framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 23-37.
    2. Stanova, Nadja, 2015. "Effects of fiscal shocks in new EU members estimated from a SVARX model with debt feedback," MPRA Paper 63148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. D. J. Penzin & E. T. Adamgbe, 2019. "Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers and Its Macroeconomic Impact: The Case of Nigeria," Economic and Financial Review, Central Bank of Nigeria, vol. 57(2), June.
    4. Hodula Martin & Pfeifer Lukáš, 2018. "Fiscal-Monetary-Financial Stability Interactions in a Data-Rich Environment," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 18(3), pages 195-224, September.
    5. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner & Mojmir Hampl & Tomas Havranek & Mirko Djukic & Tibor Hledik & Jiri Polansky & Ljubica Trajcev & Jan Vlcek & Ruslan Aliyev & Dana Hajkova & Ivana Kubicova, 2017. "Effects of Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 15, number rb15/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Jan Bruha, January.
    6. Katerina GAWTHORPE, 2020. "Heterogeneous VAT taxation in the Czech economy," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11, pages 132-159, December.
    7. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Jan Libich & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Jakub Rysanek & Pavel Soukup & Petr Stehlik & Vilem Vale, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 11, number rb11/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak, January.
    8. Kateřina GAWTHORPE, 2022. "Population ageing and sustainable fiscal policy in Czechia," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 13, pages 81-105, June.
    9. Ambriško, Róbert & Babecký, Jan & Ryšánek, Jakub & Valenta, Vilém, 2015. "Assessing the impact of fiscal measures on the Czech economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 350-357.
    10. Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Jakub Rysanek, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Policy in the DSGE-VAR Framework: The Case of the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2016/09, Czech National Bank.
    11. Robert Ambrisko, 2019. "Fiscal Devaluation in a Small Open Economy," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(1), pages 67-88, March.
    12. de Walque, Gregory & Pisani, Massimiliano & Kilponen, Juha & Thomas, Carlos & Hlédik, Tibor & Hurtado, Samuel & Hollmayr, Josef & Corbo, Vesna & Schmidt, Sebastian & Micallef, Brian & Maria, José R. &, 2015. "Comparing fiscal multipliers across models and countries in Europe," Working Paper Series 1760, European Central Bank.
    13. Frantisek Brazdik & Jan Bruha & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Tibor Hledik & Tomas Holub & Zuzana Humplova & Frantisek Kopriva & Jiri Polansky & Marek Rusnak & Jaromir Tonner, 2015. "Forecasting," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 13, number rb13/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak, January.
    14. Michal Andrle & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jaromir Baxa & Jan Bruha & Peter Claeys & Jan Filacek & Jakub Mateju & Miroslav Plasil & Serhat Solmaz & Borek Vasicek, 2015. "Monetary Policy Challenges in a Low-Inflation Environment," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 13, number rb13/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Franta, January.
    15. Vagliasindi,Maria & Gorgulu,Nisan, 2021. "What Have We Learned about the Effectiveness of Infrastructure Investment as a FiscalStimulus ? A Literature Review," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9796, The World Bank.
    16. Kamil Galuscak & Ivan Sutoris & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Bruha & Filip Novotny & Volha Audzei & Frantisek Brazdik, 2017. "Trade and External Relations," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 15, number rb15/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha, January.
    17. Miroslav Klucik, 2015. "Fiscal Adjustment in Slovakia: Findings from a Medium-Scale Econometric Model," Working Papers Working Paper No. 1/2015, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    18. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky & Jaromir Tonner & Stanislav Tvrz & Osvald Vasicek & Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak & Lubomir Lizal & Diana Zigraiova, 2016. "Topics in Labour Markets," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 14, number rb14/1 edited by Jan Babecky, January.
    19. Dudas Lavinia, 2018. "The Crisis And Fiscal Policy In Developing Countries," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0, pages 106-112, December.
    20. Miroslav Plasil & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac & Volha Audzei & Jakub Mateju & Michal Kejak & Simona Malovana & Jan Frait, 2016. "Financial Cycles and Macroprudential and Monetary Policies," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 14, number rb14/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Hlavacek, January.
    21. Martin Hodula & Lukas Pfeifer, 2018. "The Impact of Credit Booms and Economic Policy on Labour Productivity: A Sectoral Analysis," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 12(1), pages 10-42.
    22. Matus Senaj & Milan Vyskrabka, 2015. "Labor Tax Harmonization in a Multi-Country Model," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(3), pages 192-210, May.
    23. Sergey M. Ivashchenko, 2019. "DSGE Models: Problem of Trends," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 2, pages 81-95, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian estimation; DSGE; fiscal policy; fiscal rule; fiscal multipliers; open economy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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