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Fiscal policy in an estimated open-economy model for the Euro area

  • Marco Ratto
  • Werner Roeger
  • Jan in't Veld

This paper uses an estimated DSGE model for the euro area to study the effects of fiscal stabilisation policies. There are at least two features of the euro area economy which makes this analysis interesting. First, there are nominal rigidities in goods and labour markets, and there are financial market frictions with a significant share of liquidity constrained households. Second, the government is a major sector of the euro area economy. In this paper we look at fiscal stabilisation via government consumption, investment, transfers and wage taxes. Empirical evidence is found for systematic countercyclical fiscal policy. Consistent with previous findings, there is a small positive fiscal multiplier in the case of transitory fiscal shocks. It is found that fiscal policy is effective in stabilising GDP in the presence of demand and supply shocks. Fiscal policy helps to reduce the demand externality arising from nominal rigidities. In addition automatic stabilisation via government transfers helps to smooth consumption of liquidity constrained household. Fiscal policy partly compensates the financial market distortion. With distorted goods, labour and financial markets it is found that the estimated fiscal policy rules reduce fluctuations in euro area GDP by about 14 percent.

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Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 266.

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Length: 58 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0266
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  1. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2007. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0715, Banco de Espa�a.
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  10. Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Papers 276, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  11. Lorenzo Forni & Libero Monteforte, 2006. "The estimated general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: the case of the euro area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 142, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Michael J. Artis, Luca Onorante, 2006. "The Economic Importance of Fiscal Rules," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/14, European University Institute.
  13. C�cile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner R�ger, 2002. "Production function approach to calculating potential growth and output gaps - estimates for the EU Member States and the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 176, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  14. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  17. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models," Working Paper 96-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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