IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eui/euiwps/eco2006-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Economic Importance of Fiscal Rules

Author

Listed:
  • Michael J. Artis, Luca Onorante

Abstract

The present paper provides an assessment of the effect of the recent revision of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) on the European economies. A set of structural VARs, one for each eurozone country, is estimated. The estimated models are then used to assess the possible effect of alternative sets of fiscal rules, with particular attention to the Stability and Growth Pact in its old and reformed versions. The investigation suggests that fiscal policy has had in the past a limited smoothing effect on the cycle, and therefore the cost of the old rules in the corrective arm of the Pact was also limited. As for the reform of the Pact, the analysis is overall supportive of the new country-specific Medium Term Objectives. The modified rules of the Excessive deficit procedure are likely to give the governments only a limited extra leeway to reduce the variability of the cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Artis, Luca Onorante, 2006. "The Economic Importance of Fiscal Rules," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/14, European University Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2006/14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cadmus.iue.it/dspace/bitstream/1814/6095/1/ECO2006-14.pdf
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cécile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Röger, 2002. "Production function approach to calculating potential growth and output gaps - estimates for the EU Member States and the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 176, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    3. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October.
    4. Michael J. Artis & Marco Buti, 2000. "‘Close‐to‐Balance or in Surplus’: A Policy‐Maker's Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 563-591, November.
    5. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447.
    6. Carlo A. Favero, "undated". "How do European monetary and fiscal authorities behave?," Working Papers 214, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    7. Roberto Perotti, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Economics Working Papers 015, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    8. Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O., 1999. "Fiscal Policy in the Transition to Monetary Union: a Structural VAR Model," Working papers 60, Banque de France.
    9. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196.
    10. Peter Downes & Aaron Drew & Patrice Ollivaud, 2003. "The OECD Medium-Term Reference Scenario: Economic Outlook No.74," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 372, OECD Publishing.
    11. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    12. Michael Artis & Bernhard Winkler, 1998. "The Stability Pact: Safeguarding the Credibility of the European Central Bank," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 163(1), pages 87-98, January.
    13. Marco Buti & Gabriele Giudice, 2002. "Maastricht’s Fiscal Rules at Ten: An Assessment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(5), pages 823-848, December.
    14. Perotti, Roberto, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Paper Series 168, European Central Bank.
    15. Thomas Dalsgaard & Alain de Serres, 1999. "Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries: A Simulated SVAR Model Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 216, OECD Publishing.
    16. Peter S. Heller & Sanjeev Gupta, 2002. "More Aid - Making It Work for the Poor," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 3(4), pages 131-146, October.
    17. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," NBER Working Papers 5332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    19. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    20. Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & John Flemming & Seppo Honkapohja & John Kay & Willi Leibfritz & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Xavier Vives, 2003. "EEAG European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo: Report on the European Economy 2003," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 1-140, October.
    22. Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi, 2003. "Price Dispersions in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 3746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    24. Carlo A. Favero & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary-Fiscal Mix and Inflation Performance: Evidence from the U.S," Working Papers 234, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    25. Beetsma, Roel M.W.J. & Debrun, Xavier, 2007. "The new stability and growth pact: A first assessment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 453-477, February.
    26. Jordi Galí & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe [‘Consumption smoothing through fiscal policy in OECD and EU countries’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muscatelli, Vito A. & Natale, Piergiovanna & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2012. "A simple and flexible alternative to Stability and Growth Pact deficit ceilings. Is it at hand?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 14-26.
    2. Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2008. "QUEST III: an estimated DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 335, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Hodžić, Sabina & Bečić, Emira, 2015. "Analysis of the Fiscal Rule Index in EU Member States," Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference (2015), Kotor, Montengero, in: Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference, Kotor, Montengero, 10-11 September 2015, pages 431-438, IRENET - Society for Advancing Innovation and Research in Economy, Zagreb.
    4. Castro, Vitor, 2011. "The impact of the European Union fiscal rules on economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 313-326, June.
    5. Ratto Marco & Roeger Werner & Veld Jan, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in an estimated open-economy model for the EURO area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 43, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Pirvu, Daniela & Dutu, Amalia & Enachescu, Carmen, 2019. "Analysing Of Government'S Fiscal Behaviour In The Eu Member States Through Clustering Procedure," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 10(1), pages 23-39.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Larch & Matteo Salto, 2005. "Fiscal rules, inertia and discretionary fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(10), pages 1135-1146.
    2. Francesco Daveri & Andrea Mascotto, "undated". "The IT revolution across the U.S. states," Working Papers 226, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1423 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jerome Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2005. "Discretionary Policy Interactions and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: A SVAR Analysis on French Data," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    5. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Some stylized facts on non-systematic fiscal policy in the Euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 461-479, September.
    6. Javier Andrés & Rafael Doménech, 2006. "Fiscal Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 176(1), pages 9-41, April.
    7. Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Stabilization effects of social spending: Empirical evidence from a panel of OECD countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 34-48, March.
    8. Sébastien Pommier, 2008. "The Use of Fiscal Policy in EMU: First Appraisal and Future Prospects," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, vol. 69(03), pages 28-45.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2525 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. António Afonso & Peter Claeys, 2006. "The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output – the cases of France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain," Working Papers Department of Economics 2006/26, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    11. Francisco de Castro, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 913-924.
    12. Anne Brunila & Marco Buti & Jan In 'T Veld, 2003. "Fiscal Policy in Europe: How Effective Are Automatic Stabilisers?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-24, March.
    13. Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi, 2006. "The elusive costs and the immaterial gains of fiscal constraints," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1391-1414, September.
    14. Patrick Fève, 2005. "Voies de la modélisation macro-économétrique?," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 20(1), pages 147-179.
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_028 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. António Afonso & José Alves & Serena Ionta, 2023. "The effects of monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability regimes in the Euro Area," Working Papers REM 2023/0281, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    17. Giuliodori, Massimo & Beetsma, Roel, 2004. "What are the spill-overs from fiscal shocks in Europe? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 325, European Central Bank.
    18. K. Peren Arin & Peter H. Helles & Murat Koyuncu & Otto F. M. Reich, 2016. "Should We Care About The Composition Of Tax-Based Stimulus Packages?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(3), pages 430-445, July.
    19. Ant Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4439-4454, December.
    20. Hasko, Harri, 2007. "Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic: the role of monetary and fiscal policy in public debt dynamics since the 1970s," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 28/2007, Bank of Finland.
    21. Hasko, Harri, 2007. "Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic : the role of monetary and fiscal policy in public debt dynamics since the 1970s," Research Discussion Papers 28/2007, Bank of Finland.
    22. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2006. "Trade spill-overs of fiscal policy in the European Union: a panel analysis [‘Fiscal policy, profits, and investment’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 640-687.
    23. Jürgen von Hagen & Charles Wyplosz, 2008. "EMU's Decentralized System of Fiscal Policy," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 306, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Monetary Union; Stability and Growth Pact; fiscal-monetary interactions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2006/14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cécile Brière (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deiueit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.