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The Impact Of The European Union Fiscal Rules On Economic Growth

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  • Castro, Vítor

    (University of Warwick, University of Coimbra and NIPE)

Abstract

This study intends to provide an empirical answer to the question of whether Maastricht and SGP fiscal rules have affected growth of European Union countries. A growth equation augmented with fiscal variables and controlling for the period in which fiscal rules were implemented in Europe is estimated over a panel of 15 EU countries (and 8 OECD countries) for the period 1970-2005 with the purpose of answering this question. The equation is estimated using both a dynamic fixed effects estimator and a recently developed pooled mean group estimator. GMM estimators are also used in a robustness analysis. Empirical results show that growth of real GDP per capita in the EU was not negatively affected in the period after Maastricht. This is the case when the recent performance of EU countries is compared both with their past performance and with the performance of other developed countries. Results even show that growth is slightly higher in the period in which the fulfilment of the 3% criteria for the deficit started to be officially assessed. Therefore, this study concludes that the institutional changes that occurred in Europe after 1992, especially the implementation of Maastricht and Stability and Growth Pact fiscal rules, should not be blamed for being harmful to growth in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Castro, Vítor, 2007. "The Impact Of The European Union Fiscal Rules On Economic Growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 794, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:794
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    2. Alexandru Theodoru DRONCA, 2016. "The influence of fiscal freedom, government effectiveness and human development index on tax evasion in the European Union," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 5-18, Winter.
    3. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    4. Alexandru Theodoru DRONCA, 2016. "The influence of fiscal freedom, government effectiveness and human development index on tax evasion in the European Union," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 5-18, Winter.
    5. repec:wsi:medjxx:v:05:y:2013:i:03:n:s1793812013500156 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Etoundi Atenga, Eric Martial, 2017. "On the Determinants of output Co-movements in the CEMAC Zone:Examining the Role of Trade, Policy Channel, Economic Structure and Common Factors," MPRA Paper 82091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
    8. Ray, Nikhil. & Velasquez, Agustin. & Islam, Iyanatul., 2015. "Fiscal rules, growth and employment : a developing country perspective," ILO Working Papers 994881313402676, International Labour Organization.
    9. Ibrahim Ahmed Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, 2013. "Fiscal Regimes In And Outside The Mena Region," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 1-25.
    10. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "How Does Fiscal Consolidation Impact on Income Inequality?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(4), pages 702-726, December.
    11. Konstantinos Konstantakis & Theofanis Papageorgiou & Panayotis Michaelides & Efthymios Tsionas, 2015. "Economic Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy in Europe: A Political Business Cycles Approach Using Panel Data and Clustering (1996–2013)," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 971-998, November.
    12. Ciprian ROTARU & Raluca GEORGESCU & Dumitru-Alexandru BODISLAV, 2017. "The evolution of corruption and its current state – A case study on Romania," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 99-108, Spring.
    13. João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte & Marta Simões, 2014. "A Quantile Regression Analysis of Growth and Convergence in the EU: Potential Implications for Portugal," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 39, pages 48-72, June.
    14. Zaenal Mutaqin & Masaru Ichihashi, 2012. "The Role of Maastricht Criteria and Membership in Determining Convergence in the Eurozone and ASEAN: A Panel Data Analysis," IDEC DP2 Series 2-7, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).
    15. Castro, Vitor, 2011. "The impact of the European Union fiscal rules on economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 313-326, June.
    16. Ciprian ROTARU & Raluca GEORGESCU & Dumitru-Alexandru BODISLAV, 2017. "The evolution of corruption and its current state – A case study on Romania," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 99-108, Spring.
    17. repec:eee:joecas:v:13:y:2016:i:c:p:57-68 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:beo:journl:v:62:y:2017:i:212:p:7-42 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Union ; Economic Growth ; Fiscal rules ; Pooled mean group estimator;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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