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EU Fiscal Stance Vulnerability: Are the Old Members the Gold Members?

  • Dybczak, Kamil
  • Melecky, Martin

This paper investigates the effect of aggregate shocks on the fiscal stance of the EU, and of its old (OMS) and new (NMS) member states over a business cycle. The fiscal stance is measured by the government deficit. To study the impact of aggregate shocks, we use impulse responses derived from a pooled structural vector autoregression model estimated on annual panel data. We find that the fiscal deficits of OMS could be vulnerable to discretionary changes in government expenditures and revenues. In contrast, the fiscal stance of NMS shows vulnerability to GDP shocks, because the increase in revenues after a positive GDP shock is often outpaced by greater expenditure increases in NMS. The estimated fiscal vulnerabilities stem from disproportionate policy responses concerning government expenditures and a lacking discipline to control pro-cyclical fiscal spending. Our findings for the EU thus support application of fiscal rules focused on government expenditure rather than other fiscal variables.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42837.

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Date of creation: Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42837
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  1. Ratto Marco & Roeger Werner & Veld Jan, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in an estimated open-economy model for the EURO area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 43, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
  3. Mara, Eugenia-Ramona, 2012. "Determinants of fiscal budget volatility in old versus new EU member states," MPRA Paper 42555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Melecky, Martin & Raddatz, Claudio, 2011. "How do governments respond after catastrophes ? natural-disaster shocks and the fiscal stance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5564, The World Bank.
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  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  16. Robertson, D & Symons, J, 1992. "Some Strange Properties of Panel Data Estimators," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 175-89, April-Jun.
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  19. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Working Papers 13/1, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Jan Zápal & Ondrej Schneider, 2006. "What are their Words Worth? Political Plans and Economic Pains of Fiscal Consolidations in New EU Member States," CESifo Working Paper Series 1655, CESifo Group Munich.
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