An estimated open-economy model for the EURO area
We estimate a small open economy DSGE model for the euro area. The household sector optimises an intertemporal utility function with habit persistence. Households decide about asset accumulation, consumption and sets wages in a monopolistically competitive labour market. Households trade bonds internationally and there is a risk premium determined by the degree of foreign indebtedness. Firms are owned by domestic households. Consistent with the household objective function they determine labour demand, capacity, investment and they set prices in a monopolistically competitive goods market by maximising the market value of the corporate sector. Apart from technological constraints, decisions are subject to convex adjustment costs. Monetary policy is modelled via a Taylor rule. A Bayesian estimation approach is applied, using the Dynare code, by Michel Juillard, via the log-linearisation of the model around the steady state, solution of the forward looking log-linear model and computation of the likelihood via Kalman filter. After estimating the posterior mode via standard optimisation routines, the posterior distribution of model parameters is estimated with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. Unobserved components are also derived, such as technology, target inflation, capital utilisation. A full Bayesian impulse response analysis is then performed, comprising a detailed sensitivity analysis of the main dynamical features of the model simulations versus changes in model parameters.
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