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An Estimated Two Country DSGE Model of Austria and the Euro Area


  • Fritz Breuss
  • Katrin Rabitsch


We present a two-country New Open Economy Macro model of the Austrian economy within the European Union's Economic & Monetary Union (EMU). The model includes both nominal and real frictions that have proven to be important in matching business cycle facts, and that allows for an investigation of the effects and cross-country transmission of a number of structural shocks: shocks to technologies, shocks to preferences, cost-push type shocks and policy shocks. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods on quarterly data covering the period of 1976:Q1-2005:Q1. In addition to the assessment of the relative importance of various shocks, the model also allows to investigate effects of the monetary regime switch with the final stage of the EMU and investigates in how far this has altered macroeconomic transmission. We find that Austria's economy appears to react stronger to demand shocks, while in the rest of the Euro Area supply shocks have a stronger impact. Comparing the estimations on pre-EMU and EMU subsamples we find that the contribution of (rest of the) Euro Area shocks to Austria's business cycle fluctuations has increased significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Fritz Breuss & Katrin Rabitsch, 2008. "An Estimated Two Country DSGE Model of Austria and the Euro Area," FIW Working Paper series 017, FIW.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2008:i:017

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ratto Marco & Roeger Werner & Veld Jan, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in an estimated open-economy model for the EURO area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 43, Society for Computational Economics.
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    9. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
    10. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2004. "Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE Model: An Application to the Euro Area," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 841-867, November.
    11. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
    12. Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger, 2005. "An estimated open-economy model for the EURO area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 84, Society for Computational Economics.
    13. Sandra Martina Leitner, 2007. "The Austrian Business Cycle - A Characterization," Economics working papers 2007-17, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
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    Cited by:

    1. Moons, Cindy, 2009. "An Estimated Two-Country DSGE Model: losses from UK membership in EMU," Working Papers 2009/23, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
    2. Matus Senaj & Milan Vyskrabka & Juraj Zeman, 2010. "MUSE: Monetary Union and Slovak Economy model," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2010, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    3. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "Ten Years of EMU – Achievements, Drawbacks and Challenges," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 82(1), pages 61-84, January.
    4. Eric Mayer & Johannes Gareis, 2013. "What Drives Ireland’s Housing Market? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 919-961, November.
    5. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "Lack of Cyclical Convergence Puts Euro Area at Risk," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 82(2), pages 125-138, February.
    6. Fritz Breuss, 2016. "Would DSGE Models have Predicted the Great Recession in Austria?," WIFO Working Papers 530, WIFO.
    7. Marianna Cervená & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Short-term forecasting GDP with a DSGE model augmented by monthly indicators," Working Papers 163, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    8. Železník Martin, 2011. "Labor Market Regulation and its Characteristics: Comparison Between Czech Republic and Austria," Review of Economic Perspectives, De Gruyter Open, vol. 11(2), pages 93-120, January.
    9. Christian Beer, 2011. "Literature Review on the Economic Effects of the Euro on Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 22-34.
    10. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "Lacking "Europeanisation" of National Business Cycles as a Risk for the Euro Area," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 14(2), pages 91-104, June.
    11. Cindy Moons, 2013. "Losses from Membership in EMU: An Estimated Two-Country DSGE Model," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 59(1), pages 27-61.
    12. Anca Tanasie, 2013. "The Euro Area Crisis Impact On Candidate Countries," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(41), pages 125-130.
    13. Gerhard Fenz & Lukas Reiss & Martin Schneider, 2012. "A structural interpretation of the impact of the great recession on the Austrian economy using an estimated DSGE model," Working Papers 177, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).

    More about this item


    EMU; DSGE Modelling; Bayesian Estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance


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