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Short-term forecasting GDP with a DSGE model augmented by monthly indicators

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Abstract

DSGE models are useful tools for evaluating the impact of policy changes but their use for (short-term) forecasting is still at an infant stage. Besides theory based restrictions, the timeliness of data is an important issue. Since DSGE models are based on quarterly data, they are vulnerable to a publication lag of quarterly national accounts. In this paper we propose a framework for a short-term forecasting of GDP based on a medium-scale DSGE model for a small open economy within a currency area that utilizes the timely information available in monthly conjunctural indicators. To this end we adopt a methodology proposed by Giannone, Monti and Reichlin (2009). Using Austrian data we find that the forecasting performance of the DSGE model can be improved considerably by conjunctural indicators while still maintaining the story-telling capability of the model.

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  • Marianna Cervená & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Short-term forecasting GDP with a DSGE model augmented by monthly indicators," Working Papers 163, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:163
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    1. Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba‐Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2011. "Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 25-44, February.
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    1. repec:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:1:p:100-120 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
    3. Stefan Niemann & Paul Pichler, 2017. "Collateral, Liquidity and Debt Sustainability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 2093-2126, September.
    4. Giannone, Domenico & Monti, Francesca & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2016. "Exploiting the monthly data flow in structural forecasting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 201-215.
    5. Červená, Marianna & Schneider, Martin, 2014. "Short-term forecasting of GDP with a DSGE model augmented by monthly indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 498-516.
    6. Smets, Frank & Warne, Anders & Wouters, Rafael, 2014. "Professional forecasters and real-time forecasting with a DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 981-995.
    7. Markus Knell & Helmut Stix, 2017. "Inequality, Perception Biases and Trust," Working Papers 211, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).

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    Keywords

    DSGE models; nowcasting; short-term forecasting; monthly indicators;

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