IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/wuewep/88.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What drives Ireland's housing market? A Bayesian DSGE approach

Author

Listed:
  • Gareis, Johannes
  • Mayer, Eric

Abstract

In this paper we study the drivers of fluctuations in the Irish housing market by developing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of Ireland as a member of the European Monetary Union (EMU). We estimate the model with Bayesian methods using time series for both Ireland and the rest of the EMU for the period from 1997:Q1 to 2008:Q2. We find that housing preference (demand) and technology shocks are the main drivers of fluctuations in house prices and residential investment. Moreover, we find that adding housing collateral does not improve the fit of our model to the data. A standard regression analysis shows that a good part of the variation of housing preference shocks is explained by unmodeled demand factors that have been considered in the empirical literature as important determinants of Irish house prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2012. "What drives Ireland's housing market? A Bayesian DSGE approach," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 88, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:88
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/56061/1/68915920X.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chiara Forlati & Luisa Lambertini, 2011. "Risky Mortgages in a DSGE Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 285-335, March.
    2. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, January.
    3. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
    4. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    5. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    6. Dominic Quint & Pau Rabanal, 2014. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 169-236, June.
    7. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    8. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2009. "New Keynesian models, durable goods, and collateral constraints," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 242-254, March.
    9. Fritz Breuss & Katrin Rabitsch, 2009. "An estimated two-country DSGE model of Austria and the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 123-158, February.
    10. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    11. Robert B. Barsky & Christopher L. House & Miles S. Kimball, 2007. "Sticky-Price Models and Durable Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 984-998, June.
    12. Carlos Garriga & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2012. "A model of price swings in the housing market," Working Papers 2012-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
    14. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2010. "The econometrics of DSGE models," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 3-49, March.
    15. Pau Rabanal, 2009. "Inflation Differentials between Spain and the EMU: A DSGE Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1141-1166, September.
    16. Oriol Aspachs-Bracons & Pau Rabanal, 2010. "The drivers of housing cycles in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 101-130, March.
    17. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    18. John C. Williams, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Housing Booms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 345-355, March.
    19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    20. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    21. Oriol Aspachs-Bracons & Pau Rabanal, 2011. "The Effects of Housing Prices and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 225-274, March.
    22. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    23. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    24. David Rae & Paul van den Noord, 2006. "Ireland's Housing Boom: What has Driven it and Have Prices Overshot?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 492, OECD Publishing.
    25. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro, 2008. "Monetary policy and housing prices in an estimated DSGE for the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 972, European Central Bank.
    26. McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2006. "Assessing the Role of Income and Interest Rates in Determining House Prices," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    27. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
    28. Adjemian, Stéphane & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Smets, Frank, 2008. "A quantitative perspective on optimal monetary policy cooperation between the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 884, European Central Bank.
    29. Stefano Neri, 2010. "Comments on “The drivers of housing cycles in Spain” by Oriol Aspachs-Bracons and Pau Rabanal," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 131-134, March.
    30. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bahadir, Berrak & Mykhaylova, Olena, 2014. "Housing market dynamics with delays in the construction sector," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 94-108.
    2. Maas, Daniel & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian K., 2018. "Current account dynamics and the housing cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 22-43.
    3. Anthony C Constantinou & Norman Fenton, 2017. "The future of the London Buy-To-Let property market: Simulation with temporal Bayesian Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-30, June.
    4. Maas, Daniel & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian, 2015. "Current account dynamics and the housing boom and bust cycle in Spain," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 94, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
    5. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Rossana Merola, 2019. "Consumption and credit constraints: a model and evidence from Ireland," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 475-503, August.
    6. Bekiros, Stelios & Nilavongse, Rachatar & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Expectation-driven house prices and debt defaults: The effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    7. Ozu, Atsushi & Kasuga, Norihiro & Morikawa, Hiroyuki, 2020. "Cloud computing and its impact on the Japanese macroeconomy–its oligopolistic market characteristics and social welfare," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    8. Diego Ardila & Dorsa Sanadgol & Peter Cauwels & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Identification and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles in the USA," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 613-631, April.
    9. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2017. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 332-351.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maas, Daniel & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian, 2015. "Current account dynamics and the housing boom and bust cycle in Spain," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 94, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
    2. Maas, Daniel & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian K., 2018. "Current account dynamics and the housing cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 22-43.
    3. Bofinger, Peter & Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2013. "Monetary policy transmission in a model with animal spirits and house price booms and busts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2862-2881.
    4. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    5. Dominic Quint & Pau Rabanal, 2014. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 169-236, June.
    6. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Financial Frictions and Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(5), pages 549-595, September.
    7. Wieland, V. & Afanasyeva, E. & Kuete, M. & Yoo, J., 2016. "New Methods for Macro-Financial Model Comparison and Policy Analysis," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1241-1319, Elsevier.
    8. Gallic, Ewen & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2020. "Weather shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    9. Alessandro Notarpietro & Stefano Siviero, 2015. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and House Prices: The Role of Financial Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 383-410, March.
    10. Kilponen, Juha & Orjasniemi, Seppo & Ripatti, Antti & Verona, Fabio, 2016. "The Aino 2.0 model," Research Discussion Papers 16/2016, Bank of Finland.
    11. Drago Bergholt, 2014. "Foreign shocks in an estimated multi-sector model," Working Papers No 4/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    12. Ian Christensen & Paul Corrigan & Caterina Mendicino & Shin-Ichi Nishiyama, 2016. "Consumption, housing collateral and the Canadian business cycle," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 207-236, February.
    13. Pau Rabanal & Marzie Sanjani, 2015. "Incorporating Financial Cycles in Output Gap Measures: Estimates for the Euro Area," 2015 Meeting Papers 426, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Gabriel Bruneau & Ian Christensen & Césaire Meh, 2018. "Housing market dynamics and macroprudential policies," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 864-900, August.
    15. Dey, Jaya & Tsai, Yi-Chan, 2017. "Explaining the durable goods co-movement puzzle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 75-99.
    16. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    17. Funke, Michael & Kirkby, Robert & Mihaylovski, Petar, 2018. "House prices and macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model of New Zealand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 152-171.
    18. D. Siena, 2014. "The European Monetary Union and Imbalances: Is it an Anticipation Story ?," Working papers 501, Banque de France.
    19. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
    20. McKnight, Stephen & Mihailov, Alexander & Pompa Rangel, Antonio, 2020. "What do Latin American inflation targeters care about? A comparative Bayesian estimation of central bank preferences," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing; monetary policy; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wfwuede.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wfwuede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.