IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/esr/wpaper/wp471.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Consumption and Credit Constraints: A Model and Evidence for Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Gerlach, Petra
  • Merola, Rossana

Abstract

Since the onset of the financial crisis, consumption has fallen in many economies. This paper presents a small-scale DSGE model with occasionally binding credit constraints. Indebted households start facing credit constraints when the value of their main asset, which we assume to be housing, declines. As a response, they stop smoothing consumption and deleverage. We show that even households that only expect to face a credit constraint in the future deleverage. In an Irish dataset collected during the crisis, we reject the permanent income hypothesis for highly leveraged households and thus find evidence for a disruption in consumption smoothing. This effect suggests the presence of credit constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlach, Petra & Merola, Rossana, 2013. "Consumption and Credit Constraints: A Model and Evidence for Ireland," Papers WP471, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp471
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP471.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2010. "The Consumption Response to Income Changes," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 479-506, September.
    2. Rene Lalonde & Dirk Muir, 2007. "The Bank of Canada's Version of the Global Economy Model (BoC-GEM)," Technical Reports 98, Bank of Canada.
    3. Lydon, Reamonn & O'Hanlon, Niall, 2012. "Housing Equity Withdrawal, Property Bubbles and Consumption," Research Technical Papers 05/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2017. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(3), pages 1427-1467.
    5. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2015. "Household leveraging and deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 3-20, January.
    6. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    7. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    8. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Teresa Punzi, Maria, 2013. "Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1500-1522.
    9. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters,in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1686-1714.
    11. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
    12. Kennedy, Gerard & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2012. "The Irish Mortgage Market: Stylised Facts, Negative Equity and Arrears," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 85-108, February.
    13. Christopher D. Carroll & Patrick Toche, 2009. "A Tractable Model of Buffer Stock Saving," NBER Working Papers 15265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Tim Callan & Brian Nolan & Claire Keane & Michael Savage & John Walsh, 2014. "Crisis, response and distributional impact: the case of Ireland," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, December.
    15. Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 61-156.
    16. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    17. Cristina Arellano & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit Frictions and 'Sudden Stops' in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," NBER Working Papers 8880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Duffy, David & O'Hanlon, Niall, 2013. "Negative Equity in the Irish Housing Market: Estimates Using Loan Level Data," Papers WP463, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    19. Hogan, Vincent & O'Sullivan, Pat, 2007. "Consumption and House Prices in Ireland," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(3-Autumn), pages 46-61.
    20. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-1966, December.
    21. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Smith, Katherine A., 2006. "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 82-114, September.
    22. Eric Mayer & Johannes Gareis, 2013. "What Drives Ireland’s Housing Market? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 919-961, November.
    23. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, June.
    24. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Crocker Liu, 2006. "The Financial Accelerator: Evidence from International Housing Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-352, September.
    25. Christopher D. Carroll & Miles S. Kimball, 2001. "Liquidity Constraints and Precautionary Saving," NBER Working Papers 8496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Tullio Jappelli, 1990. "Who is Credit Constrained in the U. S. Economy?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 219-234.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2014. "The effect of macroprudential policy on endogenous credit cycles," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Clancy, Daragh & Cussen, Mary & Lydon, Reamonn, 2014. "Housing Market Activity and Consumption: Macro and Micro Evidence," Research Technical Papers 13/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Li, Changsheng & Lin, Liqiong & Gan, Christopher E.C., 2016. "China credit constraints and rural households’ consumption expenditure," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 158-164.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE/Ireland/housing collateral/Occasionally binding credit constraint;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp471. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sarah Burns). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/esriiie.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.