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Price expectations, distressed mortgage markets and the housing wealth effect

  • McCarthy, Yvonne

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • McQuinn, Kieran

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

The life-cycle theory of consumption draws a well-established distinction between the implications for consumption of changes in wealth perceived to be of a "transitory" as opposed to a "permanent" nature. In this paper, using a unique combination of regulatory and survey micro-data, we examine the importance of the life-cycle theory, in estimating housing wealth effects for the Irish mortgage market. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, this market has experienced substantial levels of house price declines and negative equity. Thus, house price expectations are likely to be of major importance in influencing housing wealth effects. Our results suggest that mortgaged Irish households exhibit a relatively large wealth effect out of housing when compared with other countries and, in accordance with the life-cycle theory, households' price expectations are influencial in determining the consumption repsonse to shocks.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Research Technical Papers with number 06/RT/13.

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Date of creation: Aug 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:06/rt/13
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  1. Monica Paiella, 2004. "Does wealth affect consumption? Evidence for Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 510, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Jappelli, Tullio, 2011. "Wealth shocks, unemployment shocks and consumption in the wake of the Great Recession," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/27, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  3. Kennedy, Gerard & McIndoe Calder, Tara, 2011. "The Irish Mortgage Market: Stylised Facts, Negative Equity and Arrears," Research Technical Papers 12/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
  4. Jesse Bricker & Brian K. Bucks & Arthur Kennickell & Traci L. Mach & Kevin Moore, 2011. "Drowning or Weathering the Storm? Changes in Family Finances from 2007 to 2009," NBER Working Papers 16985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1994. "The UK Consumption Boom of the Late 1980s: Aggregate Implications of Microeconomic Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1269-1302, November.
  6. Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2010. "Effects of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession on American Households," NBER Working Papers 16407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Kelly, Robert & McCarthy, Yvonne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2012. "Impairment and negative equity in the Irish mortgage market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 256-268.
  8. John Campbell & Joao Cocco, 2004. "How Do House Prices Affect Consumption? Evidence from Micro Data," 2004 Meeting Papers 357a, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 2002. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 345-362, March.
  10. Bostic, Raphael & Gabriel, Stuart & Painter, Gary, 2009. "Housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumption: New evidence from micro data," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 79-89, January.
  11. Lydon, Reamonn & O'Hanlon, Niall, 2012. "Housing Equity Withdrawal, Property Bubbles and Consumption," Research Technical Papers 05/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
  12. Arrondel, L. & Savignac, F. & Tracol, K., 2011. "Wealth Effects on Consumption Plans: French Households in the Crisis," Working papers 344, Banque de France.
  13. Engelhardt, Gary V., 1996. "House prices and home owner saving behavior," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 313-336, June.
  14. Jie Gan, 2010. "Housing Wealth and Consumption Growth: Evidence from a Large Panel of Households," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2229-2267, June.
  15. Yvonne McCarthy & Kieran McQuinn, 2011. "How Are Irish Households Coping with their Mortgage Repayments? Information from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(1), pages 71-94.
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