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Price expectations, distressed mortgage markets and the housing wealth effect

Author

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  • McCarthy, Yvonne

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • McQuinn, Kieran

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

The life-cycle theory of consumption draws a well-established distinction between the implications for consumption of changes in wealth perceived to be of a "transitory" as opposed to a "permanent" nature. In this paper, using a unique combination of regulatory and survey micro-data, we examine the importance of the life-cycle theory, in estimating housing wealth effects for the Irish mortgage market. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, this market has experienced substantial levels of house price declines and negative equity. Thus, house price expectations are likely to be of major importance in influencing housing wealth effects. Our results suggest that mortgaged Irish households exhibit a relatively large wealth effect out of housing when compared with other countries and, in accordance with the life-cycle theory, households' price expectations are influencial in determining the consumption repsonse to shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • McCarthy, Yvonne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2013. "Price expectations, distressed mortgage markets and the housing wealth effect," Research Technical Papers 06/RT/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:06/rt/13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky, 2014. "The Housing Sector over Business Cycles: Empirical Analysis and DSGE Modelling," Working Papers 2014/12, Czech National Bank.
    2. David Cronin & Kieran McQuinn, 2023. "The housing net worth channel and the public finances: evidence from a European country panel," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(5), pages 1251-1265, October.
    3. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    4. Francesco G. Caloia & Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2022. "The housing wealth effect: The role of renovations and home improvements," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(6), pages 1532-1547, November.
    5. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2017. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 332-351.
    6. Ahrens, Achim & Beirne, Keelan & Economides, Philip & Kostarakos, Ilias & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor, 2020. "A review of the methodologies used in compiling owner-occupiers’ housing indices," Papers WP651, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. McQuinn, Kieran, 2014. "Bubble, Bubble Toil and Trouble? An Assessment of the Current State of the Irish Housing Market," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. David Cronin & Kieran McQuinn, 2023. "Labour Market Fluctuations and the Housing Net Worth Channel in the EU," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-22, March.
    9. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Rossana Merola, 2019. "Consumption and credit constraints: a model and evidence from Ireland," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 475-503, August.
    10. Lee, Hung-Wei & Lin, Che-Chun & Tsai, I-Chun, 2023. "Another application of call options: Explaining the divergence between the housing market and the rental market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    11. Yvonne McCarthy & Kieran McQuinn, 2017. "Deleveraging in a Highly Indebted Property Market: Who does it and are there Implications for Household Consumption?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(1), pages 95-117, March.
    12. Stijn Dreesen & Sven Damen, 2023. "The accuracy of homeowners’ valuations in the twenty-first century," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 513-566, July.
    13. McQuinn, Kieran & Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid, 2015. "Assessing the Sustainable Nature of Housing-Related Taxation Receipts: The Case of Ireland," Papers WP503, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. David Cronin & Kieran McQuinn, 2023. "Household Consumption and the Housing Net Worth Channel in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 54(2), pages 125-147.
    15. Duffy, David, 2014. "Updated Estimates for the Extent of Negative Equity in the Irish Housing Market," Research Notes RN2014/2/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    16. Lyons, Paul & Nevin, Ciarán & Shaw, Frances, 2019. "Real-estate concentration in the Irish banking system," Financial Stability Notes 4/FS/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    17. Clancy, Daragh & Cussen, Mary & Lydon, Reamonn, 2014. "Housing Market Activity and Consumption: Macro and Micro Evidence," Research Technical Papers 13/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; House Prices; Income; Wealth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

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