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Impairment and negative equity in the Irish mortgage market

  • Kelly, Robert
  • McCarthy, Yvonne
  • McQuinn, Kieran

Amongst the many housing markets across the OECD presently experiencing difficulties, the Irish case stands out. Between 2004 and 2007, a significant house price bubble emerged in Ireland, while the real economy was enjoying persistently strong growth rates. The sharp decline in house prices post 2007 coupled with the significant increase in unemployment has generated a combination of difficulties for the Irish residential market. To date, much of the analysis and discussion of the Irish market has tended to focus on either the concept of mortgage repayment distress or potential negative equity. By examining the issue of credit default in the Irish mortgage market, we focus on the interaction between delinquency (repayment distress) and solvency (negative equity). Building on earlier work, which used the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC), we marry existing estimates of repayment distress with estimates of negative equity for a representative sample of Irish households. Using copula modelling we then examine the dependence structure across the distributions of mortgage delinquency and solvency for these households. As a result, we are in a position to estimate the probability that a household experiencing repayment distress might also be in negative equity.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Housing Economics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 256-268

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:21:y:2012:i:3:p:256-268
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622881

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  1. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Lojschova, Adriana & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie E., 2009. "Mortgage Indebtedness and Household Financial Distress," IZA Discussion Papers 4631, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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  3. Neil Bhutta & Jane Dokko & Hui Shan, 2010. "The depth of negative equity and mortgage default decisions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Selcuk Eren & Frank Heiland & Sergi Jimenez-Martin, 2007. "How well do Individuals predict the Selling Prices of their Homes?," Department of Economics Working Papers 07-06, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
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  7. Henley, Andrew, 1998. "Residential Mobility, Housing Equity and the Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 414-27, March.
  8. Duffy, David, 2009. "Negative Equity in the Irish Housing Market," Papers WP319, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  9. Yvonne McCarthy & Kieran McQuinn, 2011. "How Are Irish Households Coping with their Mortgage Repayments? Information from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(1), pages 71-94.
  10. Wilson Sy, 2007. "A Causal Framework for Credit Default Theory," Research Paper Series 204, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  11. McCarthy, Yvonne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2010. "How are Irish households coping with their mortgage repayments? Information from the SILC Survey," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/10, Central Bank of Ireland.
  12. Keeney, Mary J. & O’Donnell, Nuala, 2009. "Financial Capability:New Evidence for Ireland," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/09, Central Bank of Ireland.
  13. Olivier Scaillet, 2005. "Kernel Based Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Copulas with Fixed Smoothing Parameters," FAME Research Paper Series rp145, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
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