IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v64y2017icp171-182.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Credit conditions in a boom and bust property market: Insights for macro-prudential policy

Author

Listed:
  • McCarthy, Yvonne
  • McQuinn, Kieran

Abstract

The substantial role played by greater credit provision in the international house price boom between 1995 and 2007 has lead to an increase in the use of macro-prudential measures as a means of preventing future credit bubbles. Calibration of these measures can prove difficult, however, given the relative ‘newness’ of the macro-prudential field and the limited experience with the use of these measures. Micro-loan level data can contribute to this debate by providing detail on how these measures tend to evolve across different buyer types and at different points in the business cycle. This paper uses a sample of 400,000 loans to assess the evolution of mortgage credit conditions across borrower groups in Ireland during the 2000s. The Irish case is particularly interesting given the severity of its housing boom and bust during this period. Furthermore, controlling for demand-side factors, we use the granular loan level data to provide estimates of an index of mortgage credit availability over the same period for the Irish mortgage market.

Suggested Citation

  • McCarthy, Yvonne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2017. "Credit conditions in a boom and bust property market: Insights for macro-prudential policy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 171-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:171-182
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2016.08.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976916300655
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.qref.2016.08.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 265-315.
    2. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. Olympia Bover & Jose Maria Casado & Sonia Costa & Philip Du Caju & Yvonne McCarthy & Eva Sierminska & Panagiota Tzamourani & Ernesto Villanueva & Tibor Zavadil, 2016. "The Distribution of Debt across Euro-Area Countries: The Role of Individual Characteristics, Institutions, and Credit Conditions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 71-128, June.
    4. Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2007. "Equilibrium mortgage choice and housing tenure decisions with refinancing," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2007. "Mortgage contracts and housing tenure decisions," Working Papers 2007-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2015. "A Model of Mortgage Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1495-1554, August.
    7. Jansen, Eilev S. & Krogh, Tord S. H., 2011. "Credit conditions indices: controlling for regime shifts in the Norwegian credit market," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-12, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Wei Jiang & Ashlyn Aiko Nelson & Edward Vytlacil, 2014. "Liar's Loan? Effects of Origination Channel and Information Falsification on Mortgage Delinquency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(1), pages 1-18, March.
    9. Gómez-Salvador, Ramón & Westermann, Thomas & Lojschová, Adriana, 2011. "Household sector borrowing in the euro area - a micro data perspective," Occasional Paper Series 125, European Central Bank.
    10. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2013. "Macroprudential Policy – A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 846-878, December.
    11. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 533-551, May.
    12. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
    13. Mark Doms & John Krainer, 2007. "Innovations in mortgage markets and increased spending on housing," Working Paper Series 2007-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2012. "Causes of banking crises: Deregulation, credit booms and asset bubbles, then and now," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 270-294.
    15. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 1999. "Boom in, bust out: Young households and the housing price cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 755-766, April.
    17. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    18. Kelly, Robert & McCarthy, Yvonne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2012. "Impairment and negative equity in the Irish mortgage market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 256-268.
    19. Claudio Borio & Patrick McGuire, 2004. "Twin peaks in equity and housing prices?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    20. Philip R. Lane, 2015. "The Funding of the Irish Domestic Banking System During the Boom," Trinity Economics Papers tep0515, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    21. Agnello, Luca & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011. "Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 171-190, September.
    22. Ramon Gomez-Salvador & Adriana Lojschova & Thomas Westermann, 2011. "Household Sector Borrowing in the Euro Area: A Micro Data Persective," BCL working papers 58, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    23. Veronica John Muellbauer & Veronica David M Williams, 2012. "Credit conditions and the real economy: the elephant in the room," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 95-101, Bank for International Settlements.
    24. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Macroprudential Policy: What Instruments and How to Use them? Lessons From Country Experiences," IMF Working Papers 2011/238, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Jane Dokko & Brian M. Doyle & Michael T. Kiley & Jinill Kim & Shane Sherlund & Jae Sim & Skander Van Den Heuvel, 2011. "Monetary policy and the global housing bubble [Assessing dynamic efficiency: theory and evidence]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 237-287.
    26. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013. "Wealth, Credit Conditions, and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59, pages 161-196, October.
    27. John V Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2012. "Credit standards and the bubble in US house prices: new econometric evidence," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 83-89, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. O'Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2020. "Review of the Rebuilding Ireland Home Loan scheme," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS104, June.
    2. Kieran McQuinn & Teresa Monteiro & Conor O’Toole, 2021. "House Price Expectations, Labour Market Developments and the House Price to Rent Ratio: A User Cost of Capital Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 25-47, January.
    3. O’Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2021. "Repayment capacity, debt service ratios and mortgage default: An exploration in crisis and non-crisis periods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. McInerney, Niall, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy, Banking and the Real Estate Sector," MPRA Paper 91777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Gaffney, Edward, 2019. "Mortgage borrowers at the loan-to-income limit," Financial Stability Notes 11/FS/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Corrigan, Eoin & O'Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, 2020. "Credit demand in the Irish mortgage market: What is the gap and could public lending help?," Papers WP671, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Eoin Corrigan & Daniel Foley & Kieran McQuinn & Conor O’Toole & Rachel Slaymaker, 2019. "Exploring Affordability in the Irish Housing Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 119-157.
    8. Egan, Paul & McQuinn, Kieran, 2023. "Regime switching and the responsiveness of prices to supply: The case of the Irish housing market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 82-94.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2021. "The Sensitivity of Housing Demand to Financing Conditions: Evidence from a Survey," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 231-265, February.
    2. Alter, Adrian & Mahoney, Elizabeth M., 2021. "Local house-price vulnerability: Evidence from the U.S. and Canada," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Gisle J. Natvik, 2018. "Explaining the Boom–Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse‐Engineering Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1751-1783, December.
    4. John Muellbauer, 2012. "When is a Housing Market Overheated Enough to Threaten Stability?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.),Property Markets and Financial Stability, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Trond-Arne Borgersen & Anne Wenche Emblem, 2022. "Mortgage Market Induced Booms and Busts in the Housing Market in a Modified DiPasquale-Wheaton Model," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 25(3), pages 281-306.
    6. Bauer, Gregory H., 2017. "International house price cycles, monetary policy and credit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-114.
    7. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Housing Markets, Expectation Formation And Interest Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 491-532, March.
    8. Bracke, Philippe, 2013. "How long do housing cycles last? A duration analysis for 19 OECD countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 213-230.
    9. David C. Ling & Joseph T.L. Ooi & Thao T.T. Le, 2015. "Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Nonfundamentals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 87-125, March.
    10. Kieran McQuinn & Teresa Monteiro & Conor O’Toole, 2021. "House Price Expectations, Labour Market Developments and the House Price to Rent Ratio: A User Cost of Capital Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 25-47, January.
    11. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Credit availability, macroprudential regulations and the house price-to-rent ratio," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 971-984.
    12. José García-Montalvo & Josep M. Raya, 2017. "Constraints on LTV as a Macroprudential Tool: A Precautionary Tale," Working Papers 1008, Barcelona School of Economics.
    13. John V. Duca & Lilit Popoyan & Susan M. Wachter, 2019. "Real Estate And The Great Crisis: Lessons For Macroprudential Policy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 121-137, January.
    14. José Garcia Montalvo & Josep M. Raya, 2017. "Constraints on LTV as a macroprudential tool: a precautionary tale," Economics Working Papers 1592, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    15. Bolt, Wilko & Demertzis, Maria & Diks, Cees & Hommes, Cars & Leij, Marco van der, 2019. "Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 234-259.
    16. Czerniak, Adam & Borowski, Jakub & Boratyński, Jakub & Rosati, Dariusz, 2020. "Asset price bubbles in a monetary union: Mind the convergence gap," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 288-302.
    17. Singh, Bhupal, 2023. "Housing prices and macroprudential policies: Evidence from microdata," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    18. Mobeen Ur Rehman & Sajid Ali & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Asymmetric Nonlinear Impact of Oil Prices and Inflation on Residential Property Prices: a Case of US, UK and Canada," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 39-54, June.
    19. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Rita Fradique Lourenço, 2015. "House prices: bubbles, exuberance or something else? Evidence from euro area countries," Working Papers w201517, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    20. Hertrich Markus, 2019. "A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 759-794, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit; House prices; Income; Interest rates; Macro-prudential;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:171-182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.