Credit Conditions and the Real Economy: The Elephant in the Room
Changes in credit market architecture are an important but unobservable structural influence on economic activity. For Australian data, we model non-price credit supply conditions within equilibrium correction models of consumption, house prices, mortgage credit and housing equity withdrawal. Our "latent interactive variable equation system" (LIVES) employs a single latent variable to capture evolutionary shifts (in credit conditions) that affect not only the intercept of each equation, but also interact with key economic variables. We show that credit conditions impact on consumption by: (i) lowering the mortgage downpayment constraint facing young households; (ii) introducing a housing collateral channel from house prices to real activity; and (iii) facilitating intertemporal consumption smoothing.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
|Date of creation:||May 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Laurence Boone & Nathalie Girouard & Isabelle Wanner, 2001. "Financial Market Liberalisation, Wealth and Consumption," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 308, OECD Publishing.
- Carl Schwartz & Christine Lewis & David Norman & Tim Hampton, 2008. "Factors Influencing Housing Equity Withdrawal: Evidence from a Microeconomic Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(267), pages 421-433, December.
- Buckley, Robert & Ermisch, John, 1982. "Government Policy and House Prices in the United Kingdom: An Econometric Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 44(4), pages 273-304, November.
- Slacalek, Jiri, 2009.
"What Drives Personal Consumption? The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth,"
Working Paper Series
1117, European Central Bank.
- Slacalek Jiri, 2009. "What Drives Personal Consumption? The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, October.
- Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "What Drives Personal Consumption?: The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 647, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Gianni La Cava & John Simon, 2005. "Household Debt and Financial Constraints in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 38(1), pages 40-60, 03.
- Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997.
"Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-27, November.
- Dougherty, Ann & Van Order, Robert, 1982. "Inflation, Housing Costs, and the Consumer Price Index," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 154-64, March.
- Meen, Geoffrey & Andrew, Mark, 1998. "On the Aggregate Housing Market Implications of Labour Market Change," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 45(4), pages 393-419, September.
- Muellbauer, John & Murata, Keiko, 2009. "Consumption, Land Prices and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 7269, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Aron, Janine & Duca, John V & Muellbauer, John & Murata, Keiko & Murphy, Anthony, 2010.
"Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7876, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Aron, Janine & Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John N. & Murata, Keiko & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Credit, housing collateral and consumption: evidence from the UK, Japan and the US," Working Papers 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2010. "Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US," Economics Series Working Papers 487, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- David M. Williams, 2009.
"House prices and financial liberalisation in Australia,"
Economics Series Working Papers
432, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Williams, David M, 2009. "House prices and financial liberalisation in Australia," MPRA Paper 15212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Financial liberalisation, consumption and debt in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-22, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 9609, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Sharon Parkinson & Beverley Searle & Susan Smith & Alice Stoakes & Gavin Wood, 2009.
"Mortgage Equity Withdrawal in Australia and Britain: Towards a Wealth-fare State?,"
European Journal of Housing Policy,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 365-389.
- Sharon Parkinson & Beverley Searle & Susan Smith & Alice Stoakes & Gavin Wood, 2009. "Mortgage Equity Withdrawal in Australia and Britain: Towards a Wealth-fare State?," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 365-389.
- David M. Williams, 2010. "Consumption, wealth and credit liberalisation in Australia," Economics Series Working Papers 492, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Peter Abelson & Roselyne Joyeux & George Milunovich & Demi Chung, 2005. "Explaining House Prices in Australia: 1970-2003," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(s1), pages S96-S103, 08.
- Miles, David, 1992. "Housing markets, consumption and financial liberalisation in the major economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1093-1127, June.
- Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, 08.
- Flint Brayton & Peter A. Tinsley, 1996. "A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
- Veronica John Muellbauer & Veronica David M Williams, 2012.
"Credit conditions and the real economy: the elephant in the room,"
BIS Papers chapters,
in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 95-101
Bank for International Settlements.
- Muellbauer, John & Williams, David M, 2011. "Credit Conditions and the Real Economy: The Elephant in the Room," CEPR Discussion Papers 8386, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert M. Dunsky & James R. Follain, 2000. "Tax-Induced Portfolio Reshuffling: The Case of the Mortgage Interest Deduction," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(4), pages 683-718.
- Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2006.
"Was There a British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- John Muellbauer & Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," Economics Series Working Papers 276, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence From A Regional Panel," ERES eres2006_150, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
- Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-77, August.
- J. S. Cramer, 1957. "A Dynamic Approach to the Theory of Consumer Demand," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 73-86.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8386. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.