IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbi/wpaper/9-rt-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impairment and Negative Equity in the Irish Mortgage Market

Author

Listed:
  • Kelly, Robert

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • McCarthy, Yvonne

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • McQuinn, Kieran

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

Understanding the true scale of the difficulties in the Irish mortgage market is of key importance from a financial stability, fiscal and social perspective. To date, much of the analysis and discussion of the Irish market has tended to focus on either the concept of mortgage repayment distress or potential negative equity. However, the combination of these two factors raises fundamental policy issues. Building on earlier work, which used the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC), we marry existing estimates of repayment distress with estimates of negative equity for a representative sample of Irish households. Using copula modelling we then examine the dependence structure across the distributions of mortgage delinquency and solvency for these households. As a result, we are in a position to estimate the probability that a household experiencing repayment distress might also be in negative equity.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelly, Robert & McCarthy, Yvonne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2011. "Impairment and Negative Equity in the Irish Mortgage Market," Research Technical Papers 9/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:9/rt/11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/research-technical-papers/research-technical-paper-09rt11.pdf?sfvrsn=8
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benítez-Silva, Hugo & Eren, Selçuk & Heiland, Frank & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi, 2015. "How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-25.
    2. David Duffy, 2010. "Negative Equity in the Irish Housing Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 41(1), pages 109-132.
    3. McCarthy, Yvonne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2010. "How are Irish households coping with their mortgage repayments? Information from the SILC Survey," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/10, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Andrew Haughwout & Ebiere Okah & Joseph Tracy, 2016. "Second Chances: Subprime Mortgage Modification and Redefault," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 771-793, June.
    5. Wilson Sy, 2007. "A Causal Framework for Credit Default Theory," Research Paper Series 204, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Lojschova, Adriana & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie E., 2009. "Mortgage Indebtedness and Household Financial Distress," IZA Discussion Papers 4631, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Scaillet, Olivier, 2007. "Kernel-based goodness-of-fit tests for copulas with fixed smoothing parameters," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 533-543, March.
    8. Genest, Christian & Rémillard, Bruno & Beaudoin, David, 2009. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: A review and a power study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 199-213, April.
    9. Ferreira, Fernando & Gyourko, Joseph & Tracy, Joseph, 2010. "Housing busts and household mobility," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 34-45, July.
    10. Henley, Andrew, 1998. "Residential Mobility, Housing Equity and the Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 414-427, March.
    11. Neil Bhutta & Jane K. Dokko & Hui Shan, 2010. "The depth of negative equity and mortgage default decisions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 2010.
    12. Yvonne McCarthy & Kieran McQuinn, 2011. "How Are Irish Households Coping with their Mortgage Repayments? Information from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(1), pages 71-94.
    13. Keeney, Mary J. & O’Donnell, Nuala, 2009. "Financial Capability:New Evidence for Ireland," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/09, Central Bank of Ireland.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kennedy, Gerard & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2012. "The Irish Mortgage Market: Stylised Facts, Negative Equity and Arrears," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 85-108, February.
    2. McCarthy, Yvonne, 2014. "Dis-entangling the mortgage arrears crisis: The rolw of the labour market, income volatility and housing equity," Research Technical Papers 02/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Yvonne McCarthy & Kieran McQuinn, 2017. "Deleveraging in a Highly Indebted Property Market: Who does it and are there Implications for Household Consumption?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(1), pages 95-117, March.
    4. Yvonne McCarthy & Kieran McQuinn, 2017. "Price Expectations, Distressed Mortgage Markets and the Housing Wealth Effect," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 478-513, April.
    5. Reamonn Lyndon & Yvonne McCarthy, 2013. "What Lies Beneath? Understanding Recent Trends in Irish Mortgage Arrears," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(1), pages 117-150.
    6. McGuinness, Anne, 2011. "The Distribution of Property Level Mortgage Arrears," Economic Letters 06/EL/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. McCarthy, Yvonne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2017. "Credit conditions in a boom and bust property market: Insights for macro-prudential policy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 171-182.
    8. Eoin Corrigan & Daniel Foley & Kieran McQuinn & Conor O’Toole & Rachel Slaymaker, 2019. "Exploring Affordability in the Irish Housing Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 119-157.
    9. repec:cbi:qtbart:y:2014:m:010:p:60-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. McCarthy, Yvonne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2013. "Credit conditions in a boom and bust property market," Research Technical Papers 08/RT/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    11. Linn, Andrew & Kelly, Anne-Marie & Bailey, Samuel, 2014. "Irish Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities – Preliminary Analysis of Loan-Level Data," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 60-70, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit; Solvency; Delinquency; Copula;

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:9/rt/11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fiona Farrelly). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cbigvie.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.