IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/stpapr/v62y2021i4d10.1007_s00362-019-01153-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Goodness-of-fit test of copula functions for semi-parametric univariate time series models

Author

Listed:
  • Shulin Zhang

    (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)

  • Qian M. Zhou

    (Mississippi State University)

  • Huazhen Lin

    (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a goodness-of-fit test, named pseudo “in-and-out-of-likelihood” (PIOL) ratio test, to check for misspecification in semi-parametric copula models for univariate time series. The proposed test extends the idea of the IOS test by Presnell and Boos (J Am Stat Assoc 99:216–227, 2004) and PIOS test by Zhang et al. (J Econom, 193:215–233, 2016), which are problematic for direct application to univariate time series. The PIOL test provides an integrated framework for both independent data and time series data. In addition, an approximation method is implemented to alleviate the computational burden of calculating the test statistics. Asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics are discussed. The finite-sample performance is examined through simulation studies. We also demonstrate the proposed method through the analysis of a time series of daily transactions of Apple trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Shulin Zhang & Qian M. Zhou & Huazhen Lin, 2021. "Goodness-of-fit test of copula functions for semi-parametric univariate time series models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1697-1721, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:stpapr:v:62:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s00362-019-01153-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s00362-019-01153-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00362-019-01153-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00362-019-01153-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Shulin & Okhrin, Ostap & Zhou, Qian M. & Song, Peter X.-K., 2016. "Goodness-of-fit test for specification of semiparametric copula dependence models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 215-233.
    2. Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2003. "Testing the Gaussian copula hypothesis for financial assets dependences," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 231-250.
    3. Tata Subba Rao & Granville Tunnicliffe Wilson & Shiu Fung Wong & Howell Tong & Tak Kuen Siu & Zudi Lu, 2017. "A New Multivariate Nonlinear Time Series Model for Portfolio Risk Measurement: The Threshold Copula-Based TAR Approach," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 243-265, March.
    4. Genest, Christian & Rémillard, Bruno & Beaudoin, David, 2009. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: A review and a power study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 199-213, April.
    5. Brendan K. Beare, 2010. "Copulas and Temporal Dependence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 395-410, January.
    6. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    7. Yan, Jun, 2007. "Enjoy the Joy of Copulas: With a Package copula," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 21(i04).
    8. Fabrizio Durante, 2009. "Construction of non-exchangeable bivariate distribution functions," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 383-391, March.
    9. Ibragimov, Rustam, 2009. "Copula-Based Characterizations For Higher Order Markov Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 819-846, June.
    10. Emura, Takeshi & Lin, Chien-Wei & Wang, Weijing, 2010. "A goodness-of-fit test for Archimedean copula models in the presence of right censoring," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 3033-3043, December.
    11. Paul Doukhan & Patrice Bertail & Philippe Soulier, 2006. "Dependence in Probability and Statistics," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00268232, HAL.
    12. W. Breymann & A. Dias & P. Embrechts, 2003. "Dependence structures for multivariate high-frequency data in finance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-14.
    13. Wanling Huang & Artem Prokhorov, 2014. "A Goodness-of-fit Test for Copulas," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 751-771, October.
    14. Panchenko, Valentyn, 2005. "Goodness-of-fit test for copulas," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 176-182.
    15. Xiaohong Chen & Wei Biao Wu & Yanping Yi, 2009. "Efficient Estimation of Copula-based Semiparametric Markov Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1691, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2009.
    16. Presnell, Brett & Boos, Dennis D., 2004. "The IOS Test for Model Misspecification," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 216-227, January.
    17. Giovanni De Luca & Paola Zuccolotto, 2017. "Dynamic tail dependence clustering of financial time series," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 641-657, September.
    18. Dobric, Jadran & Schmid, Friedrich, 2007. "A goodness of fit test for copulas based on Rosenblatt's transformation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4633-4642, May.
    19. Longla, Martial, 2015. "On mixtures of copulas and mixing coefficients," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 259-265.
    20. Smith, Michael Stanley, 2015. "Copula modelling of dependence in multivariate time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 815-833.
    21. Zhang, Shulin & Song, Peter X.-K. & Shi, Daimin & Zhou, Qian M., 2012. "Information ratio test for model misspecification on parametric structures in stochastic diffusion models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(12), pages 3975-3987.
    22. Domowitz, Ian & White, Halbert, 1982. "Misspecified models with dependent observations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 35-58, October.
    23. Beare, Brendan K., 2012. "Archimedean Copulas And Temporal Dependence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(6), pages 1165-1185, December.
    24. Fermanian, Jean-David, 2005. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 119-152, July.
    25. Rémillard, Bruno & Papageorgiou, Nicolas & Soustra, Frédéric, 2012. "Copula-based semiparametric models for multivariate time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 30-42.
    26. Byungsoo Kim & Sangyeol Lee, 2013. "Robust estimation for copula Parameter in SCOMDY models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 302-314, May.
    27. Scaillet, Olivier, 2007. "Kernel-based goodness-of-fit tests for copulas with fixed smoothing parameters," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 533-543, March.
    28. Brendan K. Beare & Juwon Seo, 2015. "Vine Copula Specifications for Stationary Multivariate Markov Chains," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 228-246, March.
    29. Paul Doukhan & Patrice Bertail & Philippe Soulier, 2006. "Dependence in Probability and Statistics," Post-Print hal-00268232, HAL.
    30. Qian M. Zhou & Peter X.-K. Song & Mary E. Thompson, 2012. "Information Ratio Test for Model Misspecification in Quasi-Likelihood Inference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(497), pages 205-213, March.
    31. Mihaela ŞErban & Anthony Brockwell & John Lehoczky & Sanjay Srivastava, 2007. "Modelling the Dynamic Dependence Structure in Multivariate Financial Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 763-782, September.
    32. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Shulin & Okhrin, Ostap & Zhou, Qian M. & Song, Peter X.-K., 2016. "Goodness-of-fit test for specification of semiparametric copula dependence models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 215-233.
    2. Rubén Loaiza‐Maya & Michael S. Smith & Worapree Maneesoonthorn, 2018. "Time series copulas for heteroskedastic data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 332-354, April.
    3. Jean-David Fermanian, 2012. "An overview of the goodness-of-fit test problem for copulas," Papers 1211.4416, arXiv.org.
    4. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    5. Nagler, Thomas & Krüger, Daniel & Min, Aleksey, 2022. "Stationary vine copula models for multivariate time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(2), pages 305-324.
    6. Chen, Xiaohong & Xiao, Zhijie & Wang, Bo, 2022. "Copula-based time series with filtered nonstationarity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(1), pages 127-155.
    7. Fantazzini, Dean, 2011. "Analysis of multidimensional probability distributions with copula functions. III," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 24(4), pages 100-130.
    8. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.
    9. Xiaohong Chen & Zhijie Xiao & Bo Wang, 2020. "Copula-Based Time Series With Filtered Nonstationarity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2242R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Oct 2020.
    10. Smith, Michael Stanley, 2023. "Implicit Copulas: An Overview," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 81-104.
    11. Bladt, Martin & McNeil, Alexander J., 2022. "Time series copula models using d-vines and v-transforms," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 27-48.
    12. Bladt Martin & McNeil Alexander J., 2022. "Time series with infinite-order partial copula dependence," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 87-107, January.
    13. Overbeck Ludger & Schmidt Wolfgang M., 2015. "Multivariate Markov Families of Copulas," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-13, October.
    14. Michael Stanley Smith, 2021. "Implicit Copulas: An Overview," Papers 2109.04718, arXiv.org.
    15. Schepsmeier, Ulf, 2015. "Efficient information based goodness-of-fit tests for vine copula models with fixed margins: A comprehensive review," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 34-52.
    16. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio, 2013. "Estimating non-linear serial and cross-interdependence between financial assets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 837-846.
    17. Wanling Huang & Artem Prokhorov, 2014. "A Goodness-of-fit Test for Copulas," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 751-771, October.
    18. Gong Chen & Hartmut Fricke & Ostap Okhrin & Judith Rosenow, 2022. "Importance of Weather Conditions in a Flight Corridor," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-27, March.
    19. Liang Zhu & Christine Lim & Wenjun Xie & Yuan Wu, 2017. "Analysis of tourism demand serial dependence structure for forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 1419-1436, November.
    20. Lu, Xiaohui & Zheng, Xu, 2020. "A goodness-of-fit test for copulas based on martingale transformation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 84-117.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:stpapr:v:62:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s00362-019-01153-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.