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Credit conditions in a boom and bust property market

  • McCarthy, Yvonne

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • McQuinn, Kieran

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

The interrelationship between house prices and mortgage credit has been one of the more compelling issues to warrant attention after the recent financial crisis. Considerable financial innovation and liberalisation of wholesale international funding markets over the past 20 years greatly increased the ability of banking sectors to extend credit to the real economy. Almost inevitably many countries experienced significant house price booms over this period. The rate of house price appreciation in Ireland outstripped that of most in the OECD. Availing of two new related databases of Irish mortgaged households, this paper, firstly, quantifies the respective contribution to house price movements of changing credit conditions and, secondly, estimates an index of mortgage credit availability in the Irish property market, (MMCI), over the period 2000 - 2010.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Research Technical Papers with number 08/RT/13.

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Date of creation: Oct 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:08/rt/13
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  1. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2004. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," SIFR Research Report Series 27, Institute for Financial Research.
  2. Kelly, Robert & McCarthy, Yvonne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2012. "Impairment and negative equity in the Irish mortgage market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 256-268.
  3. Gerlach, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2004. "Bank Lending and Property Prices in Hong Kong," CEPR Discussion Papers 4797, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the Flow of Funds," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Fitzpatrick, Trevor & McQuinn, Kieran, 2004. "House Prices and Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence for Ireland," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
  7. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence From A Regional Panel," ERES eres2006_150, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  8. Kennedy, Gerard & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2012. "The Irish Mortgage Market: Stylised Facts, Negative Equity and Arrears," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 85-108, February.
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  10. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2010. "Housing Markets and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the Future," SERC Discussion Papers 0049, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
  11. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2011. "A Model of Mortgage Default," NBER Working Papers 17516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2009. "Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market," Research Technical Papers 9/RT/09, Central Bank of Ireland.
  13. John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2008. "Housing markets and the economy: the assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 1-33, spring.
  14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
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