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Credit conditions in a boom and bust property market

Author

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  • McCarthy, Yvonne

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • McQuinn, Kieran

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

The interrelationship between house prices and mortgage credit has been one of the more compelling issues to warrant attention after the recent financial crisis. Considerable financial innovation and liberalisation of wholesale international funding markets over the past 20 years greatly increased the ability of banking sectors to extend credit to the real economy. Almost inevitably many countries experienced significant house price booms over this period. The rate of house price appreciation in Ireland outstripped that of most in the OECD. Availing of two new related databases of Irish mortgaged households, this paper, firstly, quantifies the respective contribution to house price movements of changing credit conditions and, secondly, estimates an index of mortgage credit availability in the Irish property market, (MMCI), over the period 2000 - 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • McCarthy, Yvonne & McQuinn, Kieran, 2013. "Credit conditions in a boom and bust property market," Research Technical Papers 08/RT/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:08/rt/13
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    1. repec:cbi:qtbart:y:2014:m:010:p:60-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kelly, Robert & O'Malley, Terence & O'Toole, Conor, 2015. "Designing Macro-prudential Policy in Mortgage Lending: Do First Time Buyers Default Less?," Research Technical Papers 02/RT/15, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Clancy, Daragh & Cussen, Mary & Lydon, Reamonn, 2014. "Housing market developments and household consumption," Economic Letters 09/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Andrea Ferrero, 2015. "House Price Booms, Current Account Deficits, and Low Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 261-293, March.
    5. Hallissey, Niamh & Kelly, Robert & O'Malley, Terry, 2014. "Macro-prudential Tools and Credit Risk of Property Lending at Irish banks," Economic Letters 10/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Linn, Andrew & Kelly, Anne-Marie & Bailey, Samuel, 2014. "Irish Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities – Preliminary Analysis of Loan-Level Data," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 60-70, October.
    7. Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal & O’Toole, Conor, 2018. "Credit conditions, macroprudential policy and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 153-167.
    8. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Credit availability, macroprudential regulations and the house price-to-rent ratio," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 971-984.
    9. McCarthy, Yvonne, 2014. "Dis-entangling the mortgage arrears crisis: The rolw of the labour market, income volatility and housing equity," Research Technical Papers 02/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    10. Mark Cassidy & Niamh Hallissey, 2016. "The Introduction of Macroprudential Measures for the Irish Mortgage Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(2), pages 271-297.
    11. Arigoni, Filippo & McCann, Fergal & Yao, Fang, 2022. "Mortgage credit and house prices: evidence to inform macroprudential policy," Financial Stability Notes 11/FS/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    12. Kelly, Robert & Lyons, Paul & O'Toole, Conor, 2015. "Mortgage Interest Rate Types in Ireland," Economic Letters 09/EL/15, Central Bank of Ireland.
    13. Duffy, David & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2015. "Macroprudential Policy in a Recovering Market: Too Much too Soon?," Papers WP500, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. McQuinn, Kieran & Roche,Maurice, 2016. "Efficient Frontiers and Fiscal Stability: An Ex-ante and Ex-post Application to the Irish Public Finances," Papers WP538, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. Yvonne McCarthy & Kieran McQuinn, 2017. "Deleveraging in a Highly Indebted Property Market: Who does it and are there Implications for Household Consumption?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(1), pages 95-117, March.
    16. Kelly, Robert & O'Malley, Terry & O'Toole, Conor, 2014. "Do first time buyers default less? Implications for macro-prudential policy," Economic Letters 14/EL/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    17. McQuinn, Kieran & Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid, 2015. "Assessing the Sustainable Nature of Housing-Related Taxation Receipts: The Case of Ireland," Papers WP503, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    18. Milcheva, Stanimira & Zhu, Bing, 2016. "Bank integration and co-movements across housing markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 148-171.
    19. Niall McInerney, 2016. "A Structural Model of Macroprudential Policy: the Case of Ireland," EcoMod2016 9643, EcoMod.
    20. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra & Mc Inerney, Niall, 2014. "The Role of Credit in the Housing Market," Papers WP495, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    21. Clancy, Daragh & Cussen, Mary & Lydon, Reamonn, 2014. "Housing Market Activity and Consumption: Macro and Micro Evidence," Research Technical Papers 13/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    22. David Byrne & David Duffy & John FitzGerald, 2018. "Household Formation and Tenure Choice: Did the Great Irish Housing Bust Alter Consumer Behaviour?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 287-317.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit; House Prices; Income; Interest Rates; Macro prudential.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

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