On the hook for impaired bank lending: Do sovereign-bank inter-linkages affect the fiscal multiplier?
Recently, some notable contributions suggest, that discretionary fiscal policy can be an effective and self- financing policy option in the presence of extreme macroeconomic conditions. Given the special relationship between the Irish sovereign and its main financial institutions, this paper assesses the implications for the Irish fiscal accounts of certain macroeconomic policy responses. Using a comprehensive empirical framework, the paper examines the relationship between house prices, unemployment and mortgage arrears. Loan loss forecasts over the period 2012-2014 are then generated for the mortgage book of the main Irish financial institutions under two different scenarios. It is shown that macroeconomic policies, which alleviate levels of mortgage distress, improve the solvency position of the guaranteed Irish institutions thereby reducing the sovereign’s future capital obligations. Thus, the unique situation the sovereign finds itself in vis-á-vis its main financial institutions, may have significant implications for the fiscal multiplier.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box No. 559, Dame Street, Dublin 2|
Phone: (01) 671 6666
Fax: (01) 671 6561
Web page: http://www.centralbank.ie
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Curtis & John FitzGerald, 1994. "Convergence in an Open Labour Market," Papers WP045, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- David M. Williams, 2009.
"House prices and financial liberalisation in Australia,"
Economics Series Working Papers
432, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Williams, David M, 2009. "House prices and financial liberalisation in Australia," MPRA Paper 15212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dan Andrews, 2010. "Real House Prices in OECD Countries: The Role of Demand Shocks and Structural and Policy Factors," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 831, OECD Publishing.
- Kelly, Robert & O’Malley, Terence, 2016.
"The good, the bad and the impaired: A credit risk model of the Irish mortgage market,"
Journal of Financial Stability,
Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 1-9.
- Kelly, Robert, 2011. "The Good, The Bad and The Impaired - A Credit Risk Model of the Irish Mortgage Market," Research Technical Papers 13/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
- Meen, Geoffrey, 2000. "Housing Cycles and Efficiency," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 114-140, May.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2005. "Bank lending and property prices in Hong Kong," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 461-481, February.
- Günter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & René Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lindé & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Carlos d, 2012. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
- Michael Kumhof & Dirk V Muir & Carlos de Resende & Jan in ‘t Veld & René Lalonde & Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane & John Roberts & Stephen Snudden & Mathias Trabandt & Günter Coenen & Susanna M, 2010. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," IMF Working Papers 10/73, International Monetary Fund.
- Conefrey, Thomas & Fitz Gerald, John D., 2011. "The macro-economic impact of changing the rate of corporation tax," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 991-999, May.
- Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John, 2009. "The Macro-Economic Impact of Changing the Rate of Corporation Tax," Papers WP273, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John, 2011. "The Macro-economic Impact of Changing the Rate of Corporation Tax," Papers RB2011/2/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence From A Regional Panel," ERES eres2006_150, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
- John Muellbauer & Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," Economics Series Working Papers 276, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2006. "Was There a British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," CEPR Discussion Papers 5619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Oriol Aspachs-Bracons & Pau Rabanal, 2010. "The drivers of housing cycles in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 101-130, March.
- Pau Rabanal & Oriol Aspachs-Bracons, 2009. "The Drivers of Housing Cycles in Spain," IMF Working Papers 09/203, International Monetary Fund.
- Kennedy, Gerard & McQuinn, Kieran, 2012. "Why are Irish house prices still falling?," Economic Letters 05/EL/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-1727, November.
- Muellbauer, J & Murphy, A, 1996. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economics Papers 125, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 1615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ceron, Jose A. & Suarez, Javier, 2006. "Hot and Cold Housing Markets: International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 5411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Benetrix, Agustin & Lane, Philip R., 2009. "The Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Irish Economy," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(4), pages 407-434.
- Agustín S. Bénétrix and Philip R. Lane, 2009. "The Impact of Fiscal Shocks on the Irish Economy," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp281, IIIS.
- Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007. "House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, January.
- Fitzpatrick, Trevor & McQuinn, Kieran, 2004. "House Prices and Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence for Ireland," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Changrong Deng & Yongkai Ma & Yao-Min Chiang, 2009. "The Dynamic Behavior of Chinese Housing Prices," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 12(2), pages 121-134.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2010. "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland: An Update," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number jacb201051, April.
- J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
- Reamonn Lyndon & Yvonne McCarthy, 2013. "What Lies Beneath? Understanding Recent Trends in Irish Mortgage Arrears," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(1), pages 117-150.
- Lydon, Reamonn & McCarthy, Yvonne, 2011. "What Lies Beneath? Understanding Recent Trends in Irish Mortgage Arrears," Research Technical Papers 14/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2009. "Recovery Scenarios for Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS007. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:01/rt/13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fiona Farrelly)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.